Dated :- 28.02. 2016                                 NIFTY SPOT : 7029.75

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty moved exactly as was mentioned by me in my last blog dated Feb. 21, 2016.

Wherein it was mentioned, that Nifty is in such a pattern, that, if it does not crosses 7250 quickly then it will fall to 7020-7050.

And it was also mentioned that below 7080 more lower levels are coming.

Same happened Nifty moved towards 7250 and made a high of 7252 on first day of the week i.e Monday(Feb. 22, 2016) and immediately came down. Nifty was not able to take out 7250 and from next day onwards i.e. Feb. 23, 2016 it started falling furiously.

This is the power of technical analysis.

The pattern forced Nifty to fall to 7020 to 7050 and once Nifty went below 7080 more weakness crept in Nifty.

Technical analysis is combination of factors which gets activated at different times and we have to understand that which factor is more strong at that time to interpret the outcome.

Readers would have enjoyed the fall in Nifty as it was clear and was well informed to them in advance.

Book Full profits and enjoy.

Now What :-

Well, we have Budget tomorrow.

And we all know that Budget is one of the very important market moving event for our markets.

As a prudent trading policy(Specifically for retails traders) one should not have trading positions in the market, just ahead of any big news event. It is only for the professional traders who can do so.

Nifty is standing at very crucial stage at present. On the one hand indicators are showing weakness.

But, on the other hand one very important observation I want to share with readers.

Observation is :-

Since the time Nifty made low of 6869 on Feb. 12, 2016:-

1.   Nifty has tested 6960 two times. First time it rebounded to 7252 and now on second time Nifty has now given close at 7030 yesterday..

2.   Since Feb. 12, 2016 when Nifty made new low of 6869. On hourly charts Nifty is still making higher top and higher bottom(HTHB). It is very interesting because weak markets make lower tops & lower bottoms. But this time Nifty is making higher top and higher bottom (HTHB). That too for the last 10-11 trading sessions.

Remember one thing that indicators follows the price. Thus they always stay behind the price. Price moves first that is why Price is GOD.

The above observation is very important. And if, Nifty actually gives weightage  to this observation then the pattern says, that, even 7412 is on the cards.

Now it is for the budget to decide the next Nifty movement.

Technically close above 7156 rebound will gain strength. In that scenario 7254 will be first resistance and 7412 is on the cards. And if that happens then this time it will have big significance.

And close below 6960 comprehensively new low can be expected.

Means from now on till Nifty is closing above 6960 one should not be shorting Nifty at all. Rather bias should be towards rebound. And on close below 6960 new low can be expected.

This 6960 level will act as important point to decide which way one has to trade in the coming week.

Obviously, it is the budget which will decide the path. Budget days are normally volatile days.

Trade accordingly.