Dated :- 26. 01. 2015

                                                                        NIFTY SPOT : 8835.6

Hi,

Readers,

Again many heartiest congratulations of “Republic Day”.

I was out of town on a family visit. Just came back.

As far as view on Nifty is concerned. Nifty has made fast up move as expected. View is more or less same as was in my previous blog.

Small time frame charts are becoming overbought.

However daily time frame charts have no sigh on fatigue till now other than spinning top candlestick formation with gap on daily chart. One can not only rely on that spinning top but spinning top with gap and with smaller time frame chart showing fatigue should not either be ignored.

One should not try to identify top for market which is trading on all time highs. But prudence also says that before making fresh trade one should also measure risk reward and then take appropriate decision. I believe one can wait for couple of more trading sessions before taking decision for good trade to come on either side.

However looking at smaller time frame charts it seems that 8890 to 8927 can be the level from where correction may become imminent.

Trade Accordingly.

Happy Republic Day!! Stay tuned for the blog update

Dear Readers,
First and foremost, a very Happy Republic Day to all !!
Proud to be an Indian...

I will be updating the blog by late evening. Stay tuned.

Dated :- 20. 01. 2015

                                                                   NIFTY SPOT : 8695.6

Hi,

Readers,

Kudos

Nifty went up run through as was mentioned by me in my previous blog. It was clearly mentioned that as per my analysis Nifty has to compulsorily go up run through from Monday Jan 19, 2015 onwards and see Nifty has done the same. Nifty is up more than 200 points in just two days.

It was also mentioned that if at all Nifty does not go up run through in that case it will be considered as bearish indication thus it was mandatory for Nifty to go up run through.

Nifty made a high of 8708 today and closed at 8695.6.

All targets mentioned in my previous blog are hit. It is all God’s Grace.

Book full profits and step aside. And wait for the next move to come.

As I always say “Profit who hai jo Ghar aa gaya.”

Enjoy the profits.

Dated :- 19. 01. 2015

                                                                      NIFTY SPOT : 8550.7

Hi,

Readers,

Today also Nifty moved up as was mentioned in my yesterday’s blog.

It was mentioned that as per my analysis Nifty should move run through from today on wards. Nifty did exactly that.

Nifty should have moved much more today and close of Nifty for today should have been much above 8550. But ironically it closed exactly at 8550.70. Which may be the first sign that bullish momentum may not be as bullish as expected. Time will tell. Only one day’s movement which was on expected lines, may be with less steam, should be given benefit of doubt.

Nifty made a doji pattern with gap on daily charts today which is normally considered to be the state of indecision.

On even the slightest  doubt about the bullish steam, one thing one must do is to book part profit here only and trail the stop loss for the balance position to 8450 closing basis.

Trade Accordingly.

Dated :- 18. 01. 2015

                                                                       NIFTY SPOT : 8513.8

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty gave respect to the words of my previous blog. Wherein it was mentioned to have patience and wait and watch till Nifty is in the range of 8150 to 8360.

It was also mentioned that :-

Ø Close above 8305 will be the first indication that bulls want to survive and 

    fight back.

Ø 8200 is major support level and is also the confluence of many indicators, 

    thus do not short Nifty till it is above 8200.

Ø It is only some news event which can propel short covering and can take 

    Nifty to higher levels.

In light of above Nifty gave a close above 8305 on Jan. 12, 2015 and after that the surprise news of rate cut by RBI on Jan. 15, 2015 gave a trigger to bulls and propelled short covering.

Readers of the blog had the edge in that up move as no body would have been short as it was mentioned that close above 8305 would be first indication that bulls want to survive and also it was also mentioned that do not short till Nifty is above 8200. Both the conditions/ situations were present on Jan 12, 2015 itself.

However I don’t expect readers to be long either before the surprise news of rate cut by RBI as it was cautioned to be light till Nifty is between 8150 – 8360.

 But, the range breakout on Jan. 15, 2015 (on which RBI cut interest rates) gave the opportunity to buy. Nifty gave a range breakout mentioned in my previous blog above 8360 on the up side and never looked back.

Now What :-

Nifty has given upside breakout of the range above 8360 and charts are indicating that this momentum should continue.

But how this upside momentum shall continue is difficult to justify. Because this up move is supported by unusual moves in some Nifty 50 stocks which also indicate index management or may even forced breakout. Also some of the Nifty stocks are showing fatigue. Also the result season is not so great so far.

But as I always say that WHAT is more important than WHY. We need not to justify the move. It is the charts and future events which will find their reasons to justify. We have to trade only and only on the basis of the charts.

And those charts are supporting this up move and are suggesting that higher levels are coming, thus one should look for buying opportunities. Whether this breakout is real or forced time will tell, but as per charts the only trade is either to be long or have no position.

What this breakout has done is that it has turned the Technical indicators to positive. The kind of breakout Nifty has given, as per my observation, it should keep going up without consolidation from Monday onwards(i.e. Jan 19, 2015 onwards) without spending time. Rather if Nifty starts spending time again at current levels or starts consolidating again at current levels in that case one should lighten the long positions and can even close the long positions and step aside again. Because spending time again at current levels can be –ve for the breakout and in that case Nifty can even come down again.

Why I am saying that run through move is required???

Because :-

Ø Technical indicators have turned +ve.

Ø Stocks which want to go up have already spent time and have given breakout or are ready for breakout.

Ø Most of the Indicators which have turned +ve and are showing full strength at present.

Ø  Spending time would mean that indicators will start losing momentum.

Ø Once technical indicators start losing momentum in that case the Nifty stocks which are showing fatigue will have their say.

Stop losses for the long positions are 8360 closing basis and targets can be 8610 – 8690 – 8730.

With the caveat again that if Nifty do not move run through then book profits and wait again. Because it is always better to be safe than sorry.

Trade Accordingly.

Dated :- 11. 01. 2015

                                                                  NIFTY SPOT : 8284.5

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty moved exactly as was mentioned in my previous blog dated Jan 05, 2015. Wherein it was mentioned to book full profit from all the long positions in Nifty as momentum was fading and readers were alerted that Bank Nifty and Global markets are ready for correction.

Same happened Nifty and Bank Nifty and Global Markets collapsed on Jan 06, 2015 when Nifty was down more than 250 points and bank Nifty was down around 600 points in a single day. Nifty Registering biggest fall in 5 years in a single day.

Now What :-

Nifty is playing in gaps these days. Interesting thing is that on Jan 06, 2015 it gave a big gap down opening and kept falling throughout the day. That gap down was bearish and indicated that lower level are possible. And contrary to that gap down Nifty on Jan 08, 2015 gave a gap up opening and somehow maintained the gap indicating that bulls want to fight.

Now there is a tussle happening in market between bulls and bears.

And as I always say that :-

“ Jab 2 Hathi Lad Rahen Ho To Side Mein Baith Kar Dekna He Achha”.

i.e. when two elephants are fighting then it is always better to sit on the sidelines and wait.

Looking at overall picture :-

Looking at overall picture of charts one thing is certain that Nifty does not have too much up side left from here. It can only and only be big news event which can propel short covering and take Nifty to higher levels. If only the charts are allowed to have their say than it is just the matter of time and levels when Nifty will start correcting again. On monthly charts Nifty has made bearish engulfing pattern and on weekly charts also the up move is in danger. Looking at Bank Nifty Weekly, monthly and quarterly charts are saying that upside is capped and correction is imminent.

But, as a technical analyst one has to further fine tune the analysis and narrow it down to levels, that, when the move on one side shall happen.

For that see chart attached also.

 Nifty has major resistance at 8360 which is also the gap down level and support at 8150 which is also the gap made on up side.

i.e. Below 8150 it will be fresh breakdown which will ensure that lower levels are coming and money can be made by short selling below 8150.

On the other side 8360 is good resistance above which short covering will happen and in that case 8450 to 8500 levels cannot be ruled out for once.

Thus we can say that Nifty is in a range of 8150 to 8360. Further narrowing the range we have the levels of 8200 on the down side which is again major support level coming out from various indicators also and may even prove to be much important support level than 8150 even. This 8200 level has confluence of many indicators to support itself, that, even one can take a decision for once to avoid short selling till Nifty is closing above 8200.  And 8305 is the level close above it will be the first indication that Bulls want to survive and does not want to give cake walk to bears.    

   

Strategy is to wait and watch the levels mentioned above and have patience. Till then only play for small points.

Chart Showing Gap up & Gap Down

Dated :- 05. 01. 2015

                                                                         NIFTY SPOT : 8378.4

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty went up in the morning today and made a high of 8445 but could not sustain at higher levels and closed at 8378.

Since Nifty did not sustain the momentum, thus, now it is the time to book full profits from long positions and step aside.

Because as I had mentioned in my previous blog dated Jan 04, 2015 that Global markets charts are saying that they are giving topping out signals. In the light of above caution of Global markets and lack of follow through in our markets complete profit should be booked from all long positions.

Another point I would like to mention here is that Bank Nifty and banking stocks charts are saying that they may be getting ready for correction.

Time will tell.

Dated :- 04. 01. 2015                                 NIFTY SPOT : 8395.45

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty moved out of the range of 8100 to 8300 as was mentioned in my previous blog and that too with a bang.

These range breakouts normally lead to short covering and also bullish positions are made by traders.

Now What :-

Nifty chart is showing that is has bullish bias. Book part profit here and balance should be carried forward with the trailing stop loss of 8300 i.e. of cost and co-incidentally that is the breakout point itself.

Utmost care is required in riding this upward movement of Nifty and one should not be complacent at all. Because Global indices are indicating that they may be getting ready to spoil the party.

I would also like to caution readers, that, Dow chart and S&P 500 charts are showing topping out signals and FTSE is making rounding top formation. Breakdown in all the above indexes has not yet come. If at all they (i.e Dow, FTSE & S&P500) or any among above, give breakdown, then, at this level for Nifty It may be difficult to outperform for too long and to continue its upward journey. If it happens then these Global indices may spoil the bullish sentiments in our markets.

Whether it happens or not Time will tell. And till then it is a caution to play the up move in Nifty with caution and with strict stop losses.

Dated :-  01. 01. 2015                                 

Hi,

Readers,

Wishing you very

Happy and Prosperous NEW YEAR.

May GOD shower all his blessings on all of you.