STOCK MARKET VIEW BY SACHIN AGGARWAL : 2017

Sunday 31 December 2017

Nifty Blog by CA. Sachin Aggarwal

Dated :- 31.12. 2017 NIFTY SPOT : 10530.70

Hi readers,

First of all.

Happy New Year to all.

May God fulfill all your wishes and keep Showering his blessing.

Nifty is still hovering at and around 10500.

Which was expected also. Because in any case much upside was not expected in the previous week.

That was why we mentioned to stay away and watch from sidelines.

Now What :-

View is still the same for the coming week also.

In the coming week it is expected that Nifty will be more choppy and all over the place.

On the higher side 10618 is strong resistance and on the down side 10414 is support for the coming week.

Important thing I would like to highlight here, is that, the key for further movement from here will be dominated with Bank Nifty. Where Nifty has made a new high but still Bank Nifty is around 400 points away from the previous high.

And Bank Nifty chart is moving a in a range for last 2 months on daily charts.

With that it has made a Cup With Handle pattern and gave the breakout of that and after that failed that breakout.

And still consolidating in a range.

Giving indications that it is getting itself ready for a directional move in one side in probably first half of January. Keep watching.

Trade accordingly.

Note - ALL THE LEVELS ARE OF NIFTY SPOT ALWAYS.

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Monday 25 December 2017

Nifty Blog by CA. Sachin Aggarwal

Dated :- 25.12. 2017 NIFTY SPOT : 10493.00

Hi readers,

Nifty closed dot just above our level of 10492.

It closed at 10493.

And close is a close above 10492. Readers would have closed their positions and stepped aside.

Nifty is giving respect to the levels and analysis, which is always heartening to see.

This is power of trade management and booking profits timely.

Because after that one can play with the balance position.

As they say Whosoever books profits never loose.

Now What :-

As a trade policy.

Whenever Nifty breaks important level such like 10492. Just step aside and wait and let Nifty prove itself.

Strategy is to just step aside and wait for Nifty to prove. And let the indicators and Nifty come together in same direction because for example an Indicator named ADX is still moving opposite to the Nifty's move. Which is not a common phenomenon. Chart attached.

Thus just step aside and wait for Nifty to prove itself.

Trade accordingly.

Note - ALL THE LEVELS ARE OF NIFTY SPOT ALWAYS.

Sunday 17 December 2017

Nifty Blog by CA. Sachin Aggarwal

Dated :- 17.12. 2017 NIFTY SPOT : 10333.25

Hi readers,

Nifty was dancing on the tune of Gujarat Elections.

And ultimately it closed at 10333.25.

Still well within our comfort area, which is below 10410.

Important thing is that in spite of sharp move up due to exit poll results, it did not even threatened our comfort area.

Now What :-

Over the period of time, we have seen, that, till the time charts say, that, keep holding position, it means that keep holding position.

News and events will keep on coming and create impressions. This is the nature this market and World, and technical analysis is the tool and way to keep these noises away and stay with your position confidently.

It helps keeping the trades and trading strategy simple and the volatile moves does not affect your decisions.

It was clearly mentioned in my earlier blogs to go short when Nifty was at 10390 with the stop loss of 10492.

And we have already booked part profits at around 10100 in Nifty when it came down and made a low of 10044.

And it was mentioned that keep holding balance short positions in Nifty.

View is still the same. As Nifty has not done anything to change the view it has not even threatened that it might be willing to do other things and it has always stayed within our comfort area, which is below 10410.

Keep holding the short positions in Nifty with the stop loss of 10492 closing basis. Because even if Nifty do any surprise and close above 10492 and force to exit the balance position also, the overall trade is still keep us in profits.

Because pattern when activated and stays in grip and is stays in profit. Prudence and Rules of technical analysis say to stay with that and make a most out of it by keeping your risk management in place. This is how the trade management is done.

Trade accordingly.

Note - ALL THE LEVELS ARE OF NIFTY SPOT ALWAYS.

Sunday 10 December 2017

Nifty Blog by CA. Sachin Aggarwal

Dated :- 10.12. 2017 NIFTY SPOT : 10265.65

Hi readers,

Nifty posed a rebound.

After making a low of 10033 it has rebounded and closed at 10265.

Although the rebound seems to be strong and has made an important gap at 10195.

The pattern of rebound is good but since Nifty is still in a sell zone. I would like to continue to maintain the view to hold the short positions intact.

Because first reason is that the short selling point is very good i.e. at 10390 and the Nifty is still below 10390 and part profit has already been booked at around 10100 levels.

And second thing is that Nifty has not yet come in the buy zone.

This is how the trade management is done.

Next week is expected to be a big candle week on either side.

When the trade in profit just stay with the trend. The way to play is to change view whenever the charts clearly gives reverse signal. And the comfort area is 10410 closing basis. Till Nifty is below 10410 no need to worry at all. Which is also almost near to the Short sell price for the second part of the balance position.

This is the advantage of taking the trade or position early.

Trade accordingly.

Note - ALL THE LEVELS ARE OF NIFTY SPOT ALWAYS.

Sunday 3 December 2017

Nifty Blog by CA. Sachin Aggarwal

Dated :- 03.12. 2017 NIFTY SPOT : 10121.80

Hi readers,

Kudos again.

Nifty fell and fell hard.

It was all in the charts. It was clearly mentioned in my previous blog that Nifty is a complete sell at 10390 and go ahead and short sell Nifty.

Nifty fell around 300 points from there and made a low of 10108.

Readers would have also observed the magic level of 10410. It was clearly mentioned that Till Nifty is below 10410 as per our charts it is in a weak zone. And Nifty made a high of 10409.55 dot pin point. Indicators forced it to come down again.

Nifty falling speed was also fast as was mentioned in my previous blog dated Nov 26, 2017 that Nifty will fall with speed.

Reader would be enjoying the fall in Nifty.

And look at the Bank Nifty also It also fell and fell hard. Readers would be remembering that in my recent blogs I wrote that my own indicators are saying that Bank Nifty will not move up from here immediately, as those indicators would not allow it to go up. Same happened. Bank Nifty has fallen more than 800 points from the high.

This is the power of technical analysis.

It is all God's Grace.

Now What :-

Since our selling point was 10390 and handsome profits of around 300 points are coming in no time book part profit here and hold and carry the balance short position.

See, till Nifty does not cross an close above 10490 it will remain in the danger of touching lower levels. Till Nifty does not cross and close above 10490 the structure will remain in danger.

Because the level is far away from here as Nifty has fallen. Now the way to play the trade is to do the trade management. And since the selling point is around 10390 hold the part short position and book profit from the other part. So that even if Nifty give any surprise up move then also the trade will remain in profit.

And our level 10410 will keep acting as big resistance for Nifty.

Trade accordingly.

Note - ALL THE LEVELS ARE OF NIFTY SPOT ALWAYS.

Sunday 26 November 2017

Nifty Blog by CA. Sachin Aggarwal

Dated :- 26.11. 2017 NIFTY SPOT : 10389.70

Hi readers,

Nifty and Bank Nifty moved as expected and as was mentioned in my previous blog dated Nov 19, 2017.

Wherein it was mentioned that Bank Nifty will not move up from here because of the indicators and Nifty will not cross 10410.

Same happened.

Bank Nifty stayed there only for the whole week in small range.

And Nifty made a high of 10404 in the previous week. Respecting our level 10410 and closed at 10389.70.

Now What :-

Remember one thing that whenever Bank Nifty has made a small candle on weekly charts it has moved in a big way in the coming week/weeks.

Together with the fact that Nifty has not crossed the level of 10410 in the previous week. The trade which is available is to go ahead and short the Nifty at CMP i.e. 10389.70 with the stop loss of 10492 closing basis.

The small stop loss of 90 to 100 points is not relevant here and should not be cared.

I do not mind taking the trade early without waiting it to come down and wait for further final confirmations. Together with the fact that Bank Nifty has already given the breakout of Cup with Handle pattern but could not move up from there.

Because if and when it will start falling the speed will be fast and the stop loss will be bigger then.

No harm taking an aggressive trade here with the stop loss of 90-100 points. Let the stop loss hit. Because as on today as Nifty has not crossed 10410 there is no justification to buy it today. And when it is expected that good and big move is expected to come in coming days then go ahead with the trade which is there as on today. Which is sell trade.

Keep the analysis and strategy simple.

Simultaneously keep an eye on Bank Nifty, spot who's stay below 25720 will a the first indication that it wants to show weakness.

Trade accordingly.

Note - ALL THE LEVELS ARE OF NIFTY SPOT ALWAYS.

Sunday 19 November 2017

Nifty Blog by CA. Sachin Aggarwal

Dated :- 19.11. 2017 NIFTY SPOT : 10283.60

Hi readers,

Nifty was all over the place dancing on the news from different places.

But the fact is that we are staying at 10283 almost near to the previous week's close.

Bank Nifty has given a breakout of Cup with Handle Pattern and Nifty has made a bullish Kicker Pattern on daily charts.

Simultaneously Nifty is in the process of potential Bearish Head & Shoulder Pattern.

There is a some Dichotomy in Nifty and Bank Nifty.

Now let us understand the Bank Nifty Chart first. It has given a breakout of Cup With Handle pattern which is considered Bullish. And the targets are approx. 2000 points in Bank Nifty from here.

And this Cup with Handle pattern is considered very bullish pattern and its breakout is considered a strong breakout.

But my charts and my indicators are saying that Bank Nifty has reached at such a level where it has stretched my indicators so much that they rarely stretch further from here on immediate basis.

When I analyse the Bank Nifty chart and my indicators simultaneously, then I am forced to believe on my indicators as always. Who have rarely allowed any security to go beyond the level they are stretched like today. It requires an Ultra Strong news to do that. And Who knows MOODY's Rating upgrade may prove to be one of that.

And if the indicators do not allow Bank Nifty to move further then it would mean that the breakout of Cup With Handle will fizzle out.

Now let us look at the Nifty's chart, Nifty has made a bullish Kicker pattern on Daily charts. Which is also considered as strong pattern. And combining it with the bullish Bank Nifty pattern mentioned earlier the scenario is interesting.

Important thing is that Both Nifty's pattern and Bank Nifty's pattern has the habit of going up run through without wasting time.

But as per my indicators till the time Nifty does not negate the level of 10410 comprehensively, I would not be inclined to buy.

And remember that the comfort level for the sellers is only below 10172.

Charts are giving an indication that the coming week is expected to be a big body candle on either side. And Considering the indicators the coming week will be going to be very important and interesting to watch.

Trade accordingly.

Note - ALL THE LEVELS ARE OF NIFTY SPOT ALWAYS.

Sunday 12 November 2017

Nifty Blog by CA. Sachin Aggarwal

Dated :- 12.11. 2017 NIFTY SPOT : 10321.70

Hi readers,

Nifty moved exactly as was mentioned in my previous blog dated Nov. 05, 2017.

It was clearly mentioned that Nifty is expected to come down in the week. And Nifty did exactly the same it came down and made a low of 10254 nearly 250 points down from the high of 10490.

The level of 10496 was also mentioned in my previous blog and Nifty made a high of 10490 and came down.

Readers of the blog would have enjoyed the down move in Nifty.

Now What :-

Book profits from the short positions and step aside.

Enjoy the profits.

Nifty has made a bearish engulfing pattern on weekly charts.

The pattern will be active when Nifty starts closing below 10206.

Till then pattern is not active and will be taking rest.

Smaller time frame charts are indicating that they might not allow Nifty to close below 10206.

Thus for the mean time just book profits and step aside.

Wait for the next move of Nifty to come.

Till 10206 is protected Nifty can or may surprise on the up side as this 10250 around levels are important support of multiple indicators.

Trade accordingly.

Note - ALL THE LEVELS ARE OF NIFTY SPOT ALWAYS.

Sunday 5 November 2017

Nifty Blog by CA. Sachin Aggarwal

Dated :- 05.11. 2017 NIFTY SPOT : 10452.50

Hi readers,

Readers of the blog would have been able to book profit from their long positions at around 10350 on Monday and stepped aside.

Nifty stayed there and made a high of 10461 and closed at 10452.50.

Now What :-

View is still the same.

In the coming week I will not be interested in buying Nifty further.

Rather in the coming week I expect Nifty to stay in a small range or either come down.

Nifty has started making rising wedge pattern on daily and weekly charts. Which is a bearish pattern and the breakdown of the same has yet to come. But since the pattern is their it is stopping me from buying any further.

Now without any dip/correction I will not be interested to buy Nifty further on immediate basis.

If and Till the time Nifty is above 10496 just stay out of the market.

Whenever it is below my analysis for the coming week is on.

Where I expect Nifty to trade with -ve bias.

Trade accordingly.

Note - ALL THE LEVELS ARE OF NIFTY SPOT ALWAYS.

Sunday 29 October 2017

Nifty Blog by CA. Sachin Aggarwal

Dated :- 29.10. 2017 NIFTY SPOT : 10323.05

Hi readers,

Kudos again,

Nifty moved exactly as was mentioned in my previous blog dated Oct. 22, 2017.

It was clearly mentioned that above 10120 it is complete buy zone with comfort level and keep buying with the stop loss of 10060.

Nifty respected the levels and made a low of 10124 dot at the comfort level and moved up with high speed and made a high of 10366 and closed at 10323. It was the special pattern and when ever this kind of pattern is made Nifty moves up with speed.

Now What :-

Now Tomorrow on Monday i.e. Oct. 30, 2017. Book profits from the long positions and step aside.

Profit woh hai joh Ghar aa gaya.

Wait for Nifty to settle down and fresh trade to come.

Enjoy the profits.

Note - ALL THE LEVELS ARE OF NIFTY SPOT ALWAYS.

Disclaimer:

The views on Nifty and Stocks and calls made herein are personal views of the author of the blog and are for information, knowledge and educational purpose only and not for commercial purpose in any way. Views expressed in the blog are for information and for education only and it may or may not hold good. These views or calls made on the blog are not recommendations to anybody to buy or sell any index or securities. The above views and calls are based on technical analysis. While due care has been taken while expressing these views and calls, the author of the blog, is not responsible for any liability of any sort arising from the use of this blog. Readers of this column and those who buy or sell index or securities based on information in this blog are solely responsible themselves for their actions. The author may have positions in any of the index or stocks mentioned in this column. Readers of the blog are advised that before trading or doing investment in markets please take advise from your financial expert/consultant. Usage of this blog information confirms that user has read this disclaimer.