Dated :- 28.05.2013  (Tuesday)             NIFTY  :   6111.25

Hi,

Readers,

Here are the quotes of my last blog of May 23, 2013 :-

 “There is a small support at 5920, but, next logical support in the Nifty is around 5850 levels, which also happens to be 50% retracement level of current up move. One must understand that market cannot go down 100 points daily, so, after such a fall from 6230 level choppiness(up & down swings) in the market is expected. “

It was mentioned in last blog that there is support at 5920 / 5850 and up & down swings will come. Nifty went down to 5936 and took support of 5920 and started rebound from there.

Also, as cautioned earlier that Nifty is still making higher tops and higher bottoms thus timely booking profits in shorts was also advised. Result is in front of you, those who ignored caution may be cursing themselves.

Now, what the Nifty chart is saying today:-

Nifty is still below 6128 which was the breakdown level mentioned earlier. Till the time Nifty does not close above 6128 bearish bias stays and shorting shall be done only below 6050 with strict stop loss of 6130.

Nifty with this rebound is also trying to pump some strength in its weak indicators. Holding of support of 5920 means that this move of Nifty on up side should be played with open mind i.e. putting cap on it with levels is not good as it now has put Nifty into a wider range between 5900 to 6250-6300 levels.

Nifty has today made bullish head & shoulder pattern on hourly charts with breakout at around 6107 level. Smaller range is between 6050-6130 levels. Breakout of smaller range on either side will give opportunity to take intraday trades. Between 6050-6130 it is no trade zone.

Charts indicate that if 6300 is not taken out next correction whenever it comes will be a good one. Again there is caution, this move should not be used to make long positions till 6300 is taken out.

Beware, there can be uncertain moves as expiry is on this Thursday(day after tomorrow).

Dated :- 23.05.2013  (Thursday)           NIFTY  :   5967.05

                        Please click on the chart to enlarge it

                                    Note :- Blue line is of Bollinger Band

Hi,

Readers,

In last blog it was mentioned that Nifty is not breaking lower line of Bollinger Band on hourly chart and if that holds then rebound may come. But today Nifty opened below that Bollinger Band and stayed there showing breakdown (as shown in the chart above) supported by bad news from U.S. and Japan where there was lower circuit in Japanese markets. Breakdown in Nifty since it closed below 6128 supported by weak indicators intensified today and Nifty traded all through the day with –ve bias. Now there is a small support is at 5920, but, next logical support in the Nifty is around 5850 levels, which also happens to be 50% retracement level of current up move. One must understand that market can not go down 100 points daily, so, after such a fall from 6230 levels choppiness(up & down swings) in the market is expected.

By the grace of GOD all the oscillators and indicators as mentioned earlier showing weakness are working as expected.

Dated :- 22.05.2013  (Wednesday)  NIFTY AT: 6094.50
                               
                           

                              Please click the chart to enlarge it

               

Hi,

Readers,

Today Nifty opened exactly below 6128, made a high of 6147 and then came down to made a low of 6074 and closed at 6094.

As mentioned in earlier blogs bearish engulfing pattern and –ve divergence in Nifty is working and Nifty gave a close below 6128 yesterday and today also Nifty traded with –ve bias whole day and those who went short yesterday and any time today would have made profits.  

Nifty in its hourly chart today has done an interesting thing (as shown above in chart) it has not broken down Bollinger Band line even after 3 attempts and is trying to take support on white line shown in chart. This shows that tomorrow if this Bollinger band is not broken than you may witness rebound in Nifty which may take Nifty to 6150-6180 levels. But be sure that No positional longs should be taken here and even if anybody who has not followed advice before should use this rebound to exit. Any rebound in Nifty from here should be played intraday only or to exit longs.

Also today night, in U.S., we have Ben Bernanke testimony in which he may talk about his plans for continuation/discontinuation of QE. If something positive comes from there then an expected rebound may force week hands to cover shorts. Technically Nifty is still making higher highs and higher lows i.e. uptrend has not yet ended, but oscillators are showing distribution.

Keep booking profits in shorts wisely (don’t be greedy) till Nifty does not break higher highs and higher lows pattern.

Dated :- 20.05.2013 (Monday)

Hi,

Readers,

Its all God’s grace. Nifty did exactly what was mentioned in yesterday’s blog. It opened at 6198 and made a high of 6229.45 and took resistance there and then made a low of 6146. Those who have followed would have booked profits at higher levels. There was an intraday short when Nifty broke level of 6196-6197, professional traders should have taken short trade and I suppose part of the profit would have been booked today itself.

Nifty today has made bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, RSI showing –ve divergence and other indicators have started giving signals of weakness. But one day is not enough wait for follow through tomorrow is justified. Still Nifty level of 6128 remains important level below which the weakness In the Nifty will creep in more. Till then choppiness in Nifty is expected.

Now Nifty chart is saying that to touch level of 6283 is increasingly becoming difficult and level of 6250 to 6283 are now even more tough resistance to cross.

Above is the hourly chart of Nifty which is also signaling that below 6128 more weakness shall come in Nifty. So, keep reading the blog. But remember till the time Nifty does not give complete breakdown choppiness shall be there.

Dated :- 19.05.2013 (Sunday)

Hi,

Readers

Nifty today at 6187.30 has been in strong bull phase till now and the life was very easy for bulls.

But “Bulls Bulls Bulls “now it is the time to be nimble footed and be on your toes.

Have a hawkish eye on the market as the correction can come in the markets any time.

However the target of 6283 in the Nifty is still pending for which the bulls are aiming for, but to reach this level of 6283 requires a lot of fuel and energy from bulls, as 6250 is a very strong resistance for the Nifty.

Some market traders have perception of higher levels of around 6500 to 6700. But I do not suppose so and all those who are dreaming for level of 6500 to 6700 will remain in their dreams for now. That level is not going to come in a hurry.

So, what to do now??

Those who are holding long positions and till now riding the trend watch for the level of 6128 on spot Nifty. If Nifty goes below that and stay there than the close of Nifty below 6128 will be a bull stop loss who are riding the trend till now. The choppiness in the market will kill all your profits. Wise man always protects his profits first and do not become complacent. Also, Please do not be aggressive seller too, because shorting time has not come yet just book profits and step aside and keep reading the blog for further course of action.

Keep watching my Blog and market, as zone of tussle between bulls and bears is coming ahead. Be cautious and enjoy the profits.

Hi,

All readers

By GOD’s grace, blessings of Maa Bhagwati and aashirwad of my Parents and family I am starting writing Blog from today onwards.

In my blog you will get complete view on market (Nifty), its movement, its trend and ways to make profit from it and also trades on stocks i.e. positional and very short term picks both.

So, keep reading and keep making profit.

GOD may bless you.

Regards

Sachin Aggarwal

Technical analyst and Chartered Accountant