Dated :- 28.02. 2016                                 NIFTY SPOT : 7029.75

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty moved exactly as was mentioned by me in my last blog dated Feb. 21, 2016.

Wherein it was mentioned, that Nifty is in such a pattern, that, if it does not crosses 7250 quickly then it will fall to 7020-7050.

And it was also mentioned that below 7080 more lower levels are coming.

Same happened Nifty moved towards 7250 and made a high of 7252 on first day of the week i.e Monday(Feb. 22, 2016) and immediately came down. Nifty was not able to take out 7250 and from next day onwards i.e. Feb. 23, 2016 it started falling furiously.

This is the power of technical analysis.

The pattern forced Nifty to fall to 7020 to 7050 and once Nifty went below 7080 more weakness crept in Nifty.

Technical analysis is combination of factors which gets activated at different times and we have to understand that which factor is more strong at that time to interpret the outcome.

Readers would have enjoyed the fall in Nifty as it was clear and was well informed to them in advance.

Book Full profits and enjoy.

Now What :-

Well, we have Budget tomorrow.

And we all know that Budget is one of the very important market moving event for our markets.

As a prudent trading policy(Specifically for retails traders) one should not have trading positions in the market, just ahead of any big news event. It is only for the professional traders who can do so.

Nifty is standing at very crucial stage at present. On the one hand indicators are showing weakness.

But, on the other hand one very important observation I want to share with readers.

Observation is :-

Since the time Nifty made low of 6869 on Feb. 12, 2016:-

1.   Nifty has tested 6960 two times. First time it rebounded to 7252 and now on second time Nifty has now given close at 7030 yesterday..

2.   Since Feb. 12, 2016 when Nifty made new low of 6869. On hourly charts Nifty is still making higher top and higher bottom(HTHB). It is very interesting because weak markets make lower tops & lower bottoms. But this time Nifty is making higher top and higher bottom (HTHB). That too for the last 10-11 trading sessions.

Remember one thing that indicators follows the price. Thus they always stay behind the price. Price moves first that is why Price is GOD.

The above observation is very important. And if, Nifty actually gives weightage  to this observation then the pattern says, that, even 7412 is on the cards.

Now it is for the budget to decide the next Nifty movement.

Technically close above 7156 rebound will gain strength. In that scenario 7254 will be first resistance and 7412 is on the cards. And if that happens then this time it will have big significance.

And close below 6960 comprehensively new low can be expected.

Means from now on till Nifty is closing above 6960 one should not be shorting Nifty at all. Rather bias should be towards rebound. And on close below 6960 new low can be expected.

This 6960 level will act as important point to decide which way one has to trade in the coming week.

Obviously, it is the budget which will decide the path. Budget days are normally volatile days.

Trade accordingly.

 Dated :- 21.02. 2016                                 NIFTY SPOT : 7210.75

Hi,

Readers,

As mentioned in my previous blog that Nifty is deeply oversold and Nifty can rebound. Accordingly, Nifty rebounded and made a high of 7226.

Now What :-

We are approaching Budget and this week is expiry week also.

On the upside 7380 around levels will keep on acting as important resistance.

On the downside 7080 is acting as support and break below that level further downside is expected.

On an immediate basis 7230 - 7250 is acting as resistance and if this resistance is not taken out quickly then the pattern Nifty is in, a move towards 7020 – 7250 is possible. In that case resistance of 7380 will then shift to 7274. On the other hand break above 7230-50 move towards 7380 is possible.

Since Budget is only 5 trading sessions away and rail budget is very nearby, together with the fact that we are in expiry week. It is recommended to be vigil and cautious as the volatility will be on its extreme.

I still believe that this market is sell on rise and more lower will ultimately come.

Why I am saying that Nifty is still sell on rise :

Because Nifty chart has still not given any indication of any firm bottom formation till now. And the other important factor is that Midcap index has give fresh breakdown few days back and is way below its breakdown point.

Now the point is, that, either the Midcap index nullifies the breakdown which it has given or Nifty has to show that it has formed bottom or any other sign that market wants to reverse and move up comes.

Till the time anything amongst the above does not happens Nifty will remain sell on rise.

Hard to read and understand, but, it is truth. It is the charts which have to give indication till that time it will remain sell on rise.

Having said that, the coming period of Rail Budget, Expiry and Budget will play a major part in movement of the Nifty. Any out of the box thing in these news events can have its impact on the market movement.

Trade Accordingly.

 Dated :- 14.02. 2016                                 NIFTY SPOT : 6980.95

Hi,

Readers,

Kudos again.

As mentioned by me in my blog dated Jan. 17, 2016 that below 7000 levels in Nifty are going to come in couple of months. Here are the Quotes of my that blog:

“I still maintain Nifty continues to be sell on rise and final lows are still pending. May sounds scary but it is the fact.

More music is pending.

If I say in polite and soothing words then 7000 and below level are pending to be achieved in next couple of months.”

This is all GOD’s Grace.

Nifty came below 7000 level and made allow of 6869 that too fast and furiously.

Now there is complete blood on the street. Traders are scared and portfolios are butchered. It is pity but hard fact.

Nifty will go below 7000 was certain on my charts, But let me be very frank also, that, Nifty will achieve those targets so fast and in such a furious fashion even I did not anticipated that. This is market for you, It fulfills the analysis and reaches the destination, but decides its own way/road to reach there. Nifty fell almost 650 points in a single week. Just imagine the intensity of the fall.

The pessimism or weakness was so severe that Nifty was not able to cross even 7541 on the upside which was very very critical level for rebound to sustain. And remember that it was also the level below which Nifty gave fresh breakdown. Well known saying in technical analysis “Changing of polarities Support points becomes resistances and vice versa”.

As soon as Nifty broke the lower end of the range mentioned in my previous blog dated Feb 07, 2016 at 7320 fall became more furious and non stop.

This is the power of technical analysis that it gives you clear insight that which side of the trade one should be.

Now What :-

Now although Nifty short term charts have become deeply oversold and this 6800 to 6860 levels are also very important levels. They can provide support to Nifty for once.

But can we say that Nifty has made a bottom at 6869 and will reverse.

Well on my charts as on today there is no such indication and I still consider Nifty to be sell on rise. May Sound scary to readers but I can not do anything charts are still saying that only. And further lower levels in Nifty are not ruled out. Well sell on rise means that only.

I believe in my charts and till the time they do not give me signal of reversal Nifty will remain sell on rise for me.

After such a massive fall rebounds keep on coming. Keep playing those for very small profits and let the market settle down.

Trade accordingly and from now till Budget try to trade less. Because now volatility is likely to increase.

 

 Dated :- 07.02. 2016                                 NIFTY SPOT : 7489.10

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty moved as anticipated but the market volatility and the RBI policy reaction did its trick and forced Nifty to close below 7400 for once. And then from next day onwards it ultimately rebounded to 7503. Nifty sometimes does not oblige us with pin pointed levels.

The analysis would have been more simple if Nifty would have closed this week above 7541.

But since it has given close at 7489 below 7541 Nifty will remain in complex range. Remember this 7541 has another significance also, this is the level which triggered  fresh breakdown in Nifty some days back.

Now What :-

Now Nifty is broadly in a range say between 7320 to 7600.

And charts are giving conflicting signals as on today.

In such scenario it may well be better strategy to step aside for next week and wait for the market action.

But, what one should do by stepping aside.

Frankly, I want to write that Nifty may well be considered as buy on dips till 7320. But Nifty charts are not giving me confidence to write that.

But does it means, that, I should buy Nifty now, or on Dips.

The answer to that is NO.

Though I want to look for buying possibilities till 7320 is protected but Nifty chart is not giving clear buy indications, thus I would like to wait for clear signal.

One of that Signal may be, if Nifty does not go below 7436 and spend at least two more days between 7436 to 7542 and then moves above 7542 and in that process obviously closes above 7542 on same day. Then we can say that Nifty wants to move up. This is only one of the probable indication, Nifty has the habit of deciding its own path itself.

Trade Accordingly.