Dated :- 27.09. 2015

                                                                    NIFTY SPOT : 7868.50

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty moved up exactly as was mentioned by me in my previous blog dated Sept 20, 2015.

It was clearly mentioned that Nifty chart is showing that Nifty wants to be in a range between 8090 to 7730.

And, till, 7660 is protected on the down side do not panic, and Nifty will be in consolidation mode, means that buying at lower level of the range can be done without fear.

And the same happened, Nifty while moving in the range, first came down from the upper levels of the range. And while coming down to lower end of the range Nifty made a low of 7723. Our lower end was at 7730, exactly at the same level. Nifty rebounded more than 160 points from 7730. In spite of the bad news floating around the World the magical level for the week of 7730 held.

Readers of the blog would be enjoying the movement of Nifty.

Now What :-

Now also view on Nifty is virtually the same. Charts of Nifty and many parameters of different studies are indicating that Nifty wants to spend some more time in the range.

However the important thing is that, now, interestingly levels of the range are changing and the range is also broadening. Now lower end is at 7560 and the upper end is at 8060 to 8090.

Sounds strange, that range has also become big of around 500 points and the significance of 7730 and 7660 is also ignored now.

The answer to that is :- 7660 and 7730 as was mentioned in my earlier blog have done their work. This is the important area of analysis one must accept and understand. Identify and change the levels which are expected to work at different point. Now the significance of 7730 and 7660 will not be that much as per me. Now the significance has changed to 7560 and then 7510. On the up side now 8060 is becoming more and more important level. On the upside levels like 7930 & 7980 are much less important than 8060.

We have to accept that big range. Since charts are saying it.

Now let me explain some reasons showing shifting of levels :-

Bollinger band on daily charts has squeezed and straightened and is showing lower end at 7600 and upper end at 8059.

Momentum indicators and oscillators are also not ready for any immediate big up move.

Momentum indicators and oscillators are also indicating that one can not rule out a retest of 7620 and when these kind of retesting actually happens the levels sometimes can even stretch further also, that is why I gave the lower end of the range at 7560. They are also indicating that if Nifty runs away from here immediately nonstop from here then Nifty may not sustain at higher levels because Momentum indicators and oscillators are not ready right now for that kind of move up.

This is also one of the reasons that 7660 and 7730 are given less importance now. In nut shell the crux of the analysis is that expect some more range bound movement in Nifty.  Although RBI Policy on Sept 29, and Good news from World can change the position, but till now I am writing what charts are showing as on today.

Just for Knowledge and information : -  Traders would be keenly watching inverted (Bullish) Head & Shoulder pattern which Nifty is making on the daily chart having its breakout above 7980. But Since, range levels are also not too far. Give more importance to 8060 than 7980.

While spending time in the range if at all Nifty comes back to test around 7620 levels again. And then it makes some pattern and starts moving up then that move up can be given more weightage.

Trade accordingly.

Dated :- 20.09. 2015

                                                                    NIFTY SPOT : 7981.90

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty moved up as mentioned by me in my previous blog dated Sept 13, 2015.

It was clearly mentioned that once Nifty closes above 7850 next target shall be 8000.

And the same happened Nifty made the high of 8055 on Friday and closed just below 8000 at 7981.

Now What :-

Now as far as the charts are concerned they are indicating that Nifty is expected to be in a range and want to consolidate. Range is expected to be broadly in the range between 8090 to 7730.

Apart from many other indicators Bollinger Band on daily charts is also indicating that it wants to squeeze in the days to come, which also shows that consolidation is expected.

Till 7660 is protected, This rebound in Nifty has the potential to even touch 8200+ levels on the upside in days to come preferably after consolidation.  

Let me repeat again like last week that As far as charts are concerned they are still indicating, that, till 7660 is protected comprehensively, there is no need for any panic as of now. Some midcaps have also started showing that they do not want to go down further immediately and want some relief(rebound). Looking at the charts of those midcaps one gets the sense that till Nifty is within the range Midcaps can be in action.

Just for information Nifty has closed at very interesting point on Friday. On the one hand it has given the breakout of ISLAND Reversal pattern above 7930 which is considered bullish and is a rare pattern. And on the other hand it has formed a shooting star like pattern on Daily Candlestick charts which is considered bearish. But just to add ISLAND Reversal pattern is not made on BSE.

Trade accordingly.

Dated :- 13.09. 2015

                                                                          NIFTY SPOT : 7789.30

Hi,

Readers,

After giving rebound as predicted now Nifty is moving in a small range.

Charts are indicating that till 7660 is protected, Nifty rebound may have more legs and if manages to close above 7850 then even 8000 is possible.

Thus, till at least this 7660 is protected there is no justification of any Short position. Also we have FOMC meeting outcome in this coming week which is a major market moving event. One should also take it into consideration.

Thus it seems to be more prudent to be on the sidelines and watch the event. Because this time FOMC meet has more significance.

As far as charts are concerned they are indicating that ,till 7660 is protected one should look for Nifty to be in a mode of giving more strength to the rebound.

If the major market moving event of FOMC was not their I would have comfortably said that rebound is on and has more legs.

Trade less and have patience.

Also just to inform readers I will be out of town on Sept 14 and 15 thus even in case of any update on Nifty which may be important, I will not be able to update the blog till Tuesday (Sept 15, 2015).

Dated :- 09.09. 2015

                                                                       NIFTY SPOT : 7818.60

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty took the support of 7515. It touched a low of 7539 and rebounded from their, exactly as was mentioned by me in my previous blog.

It was clearly mentioned in my previous blog dated Sept. 06, 2015 (Sunday) that now shorting in Nifty should be avoided. My analysis is saying that Nifty is ready for rebound and may surprise with its speed or levels.

See, the same happened Nifty rebounded more than 300 points from the low of 7539 in just two days.

Now Nifty is having resistance at 7850 and once it is crossed even 8000 is possible. On the other hand 7700 is first support and after that 7515 will continue to act as major support.

Enjoy the rebound.

Trade accordingly.

Dated :- 06.09. 2015

                                                                           NIFTY SPOT : 7655.05

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty moved as was mentioned by me in my previous blog. Smart money was truly able to eat up the premium in Options.

Now What :-

Nifty as expected kept on falling like any thing and FII’s are continuous sellers in this market.

As I have been continuously mentioning in my earlier blogs also that The downside targets of Nifty are too below beyond the general imagination. I would not like to mention those here to scare the readers. They will take time to come.

This market is sell on rise only. Till the time it does not give any reversal of trend.

40 out of Nifty 50 Stocks are below 200 DMA on daily charts and out of remaining 10 some are just near to breaking 200 DMA on downside.

Now the thing is that what can be the immediate supports for the next week. To me, 7300 to 7515 is the area which can act as strong support for once. This is very strong Support area and it will require additional reasons to comprehensively break this area run through. This area is expected to hold for once and bears may like to or tempted to book profits at or around these levels.

Keep an eye on ADX on Daily chart. Specially on the slope of it. Currently it is around 36.

I would also like to mention here that charts have started indicating that Fresh shorting should be avoided here. But some more immediate downside cannot be ruled out. As specially on hourly charts Nifty has started to make +ve divergence and if that +ve divergence is actually in the making then some more downside is expected or Nifty should spend some time at current levels in some range for +ve divergence to take shape.

Also I would like to share my analysis with readers that my parameters have started giving signals to me that some indicators specially RSI can be expected to take one move upwards in near future (may not be immediately as confirmation is awaited). But it needs some other parameters to confirm that move. One should keep in mind these things together with the strong support levels mentioned above. And if at all that happens, that can even have the power to surprise the traders with an upside move (surprise can be either in speed or in levels).

May be the time is coming to book full profits from shorts for once and enjoy. And wait for Nifty to give next fresh clear signal.

The forthcoming FOMC meeting in mid Sept. can also have its impact on markets.

Trade accordingly.