Dated :- 21.02. 2016                                 NIFTY SPOT : 7210.75

Hi,

Readers,

As mentioned in my previous blog that Nifty is deeply oversold and Nifty can rebound. Accordingly, Nifty rebounded and made a high of 7226.

Now What :-

We are approaching Budget and this week is expiry week also.

On the upside 7380 around levels will keep on acting as important resistance.

On the downside 7080 is acting as support and break below that level further downside is expected.

On an immediate basis 7230 - 7250 is acting as resistance and if this resistance is not taken out quickly then the pattern Nifty is in, a move towards 7020 – 7250 is possible. In that case resistance of 7380 will then shift to 7274. On the other hand break above 7230-50 move towards 7380 is possible.

Since Budget is only 5 trading sessions away and rail budget is very nearby, together with the fact that we are in expiry week. It is recommended to be vigil and cautious as the volatility will be on its extreme.

I still believe that this market is sell on rise and more lower will ultimately come.

Why I am saying that Nifty is still sell on rise :

Because Nifty chart has still not given any indication of any firm bottom formation till now. And the other important factor is that Midcap index has give fresh breakdown few days back and is way below its breakdown point.

Now the point is, that, either the Midcap index nullifies the breakdown which it has given or Nifty has to show that it has formed bottom or any other sign that market wants to reverse and move up comes.

Till the time anything amongst the above does not happens Nifty will remain sell on rise.

Hard to read and understand, but, it is truth. It is the charts which have to give indication till that time it will remain sell on rise.

Having said that, the coming period of Rail Budget, Expiry and Budget will play a major part in movement of the Nifty. Any out of the box thing in these news events can have its impact on the market movement.

Trade Accordingly.