Dated :- 27.06.2013  (Thursday)           NIFTY  :   5682.35

Hi,

Readers,

The Nifty has behaved exactly as was mentioned in my previous blog on June 22, 2013. In which it was mentioned that Nifty shall take support at 5600 around level and rebound is expected from these levels. Here are the quotes of my previous blog: “This 5600 around level will further provide support to Nifty on immediate basis and a rebound is also expected from these levels”.

For all trading days after my blog Nifty gave close around that 5600 level (Nifty closed at 5590 on 24^th June, at 5609 on 25^th June, 5588 on 26^th June) and today Nifty ultimately rebounded after taking support as was mentioned in the last blog and closed at 5682.

There were positive divergences in both hourly and daily charts and today Nifty gave an upper breakout above 5666 of very short term reversal pattern and this pattern if holds, has the potential of giving further steam to this rebound and can take Nifty to some more higher levels on the back of short covering.

Although Nifty gave breakout of very short term reversal pattern today, one should not get carried away with this. Keep in mind that overall trend is down. This is contra trend move and should be played with strict stop loss keeping in mind that the downtrend can resume.

Technical analysis say that overall trend always has more power and overall trend of market holds till it is not reversed. All the counter trend moves are only contra trend moves till they become so powerful to reverse the trend and once they reverse the trend, those contra trend moves take the shape of a trend.

Trade accordingly and enjoy the profits.

Dated :- 22.06.2013  (Saturday)           NIFTY  :   5667.65

Hi,

Readers,

As mentioned in my previous blog to book profit at 5700 level as the NIFTY was ready for recovery and Nifty did exactly the same. Nifty rebounded from 5700 and made a high of 5863, this market is sell on rise market as mentioned earlier many times in my blogs and the Nifty is doing the same.

The statement by Ben Bernanke in U.S.A. on June 19, 2013 heavily hammered on the back of Nifty and the fall in Nifty on his statement was relentless (from 5822 to 5655 in single day i.e. decline of 166 points). There was a sell in Nifty at open on JUNE 20, 2013 as it was gap down and good profit should have been booked on the same day.

I believe that as far as possible, before some major news event  “NON PROFESSIONAL TRADERS”  should not have any positions or should have minimum position because in such cases big news event almost take control of the market and the profit or loss from that position is left on destiny, which is decided by that event. It is not sensible to have position ahead of big news event. Only professional traders can handle it.

One can see that even after such relentless fall Nifty took support in the support zone mentioned in my last blog of 5600 – 5650 levels. This 5600 around level will further provide support to Nifty on immediate basis and a rebound is also expected from these levels.

Do not make buy positions in this rebound rather look for sell opportunities.

This week we have expiry also, so volatile movements are expected.

Dated :- 13.06.2013  (Thursday)           NIFTY  :   5699.1

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty has done exactly what was mentioned in my earlier blogs. In my last blog it was advised to keep short positions intact and trade the up down swings. Also, it was clearly mentioned in my earlier blog dated June 05, 2013 that on the breakdown below 5850 doors for 5600-5700 will open and today Nifty made a low of 5683. After multiple breakdowns in Nifty below 5920 and 5850 as clearly explained in earlier blogs slide in Nifty was relentless.

Coming down to 5600-5700 levels was imminent for Nifty.

 Ideally Nifty should have taken some more time to reach these levels, but thanks to massive fall in rupee and bad IIP data, bears as expected, were in full swing.

Technical support was indicated at 5600-5650 levels in my earlier blogs. Nifty made a low of 5683 today. Now, Nifty has reached near to the support levels of 5650 around. It is advisable to book profit of more than 350 points (Nifty short level 6050). As a wise trader always protect its profits.

Book the profits and step aside.

Nifty is still in a downtrend and remember do not be a positional buyer. It is not prudent to keep short position open after such a relentless fall and strong support level standing head-on. However, technical rebound from support levels can come any time in shape of relief rallies.

Keep reading the blog for further views on the movement in NIFTY as it moves. Till then Enjoy the profits.

Dated :- 09.06.2013  (Sunday)              NIFTY  :   5881

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty has done exactly what was mentioned in my last blog.

Nifty is giving wild swings up and down.

It opened at 5900 on Friday and went up to 5972 and then again came down to close at 5881.

These kind of up down swings will keep on coming.

Nifty is not in a hurry to come down quickly which was also clearly mentioned in last blog, But the trend is down. It is advised to keep the short positions intact and play these swings also to earn more profits. Use these swings to trade in your existing short position (like cover it at a point and sell it again on rise). This market is sell on rise market.

Enjoy the profits.

Dated :- 05.06.2013  (Wednesday)               NIFTY  :   5923.85

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty has done exactly what was mentioned in my last blog on June 01, 2013 (Saturday).

Let me quote my last blog’s lines :-

“You should be short in Nifty below 6050 with the aim that Nifty may go to 5920 levels and try to break it to go down further. This 5915-5920 becomes very crucial level and Nifty sometimes show volatility around important levels before giving breakdown. Thus, around 5920 sit and decide your risk and reward appetite to swallow that volatility. For traders, pyramid shape profit booking is also advised as it is always prudent.”

Nifty on Tuesday took support at 5915 and then rebounded to 5980 levels and again came back to close at 5920. Today also Nifty showed high volatility keeping 5920 as fulcrum point and ultimately closed at 5924. Stiff support of 5915-5920 is working and volatility/up down swings will continue.

These up down swings will continue before breakdown in Nifty below 5915 and further on final breakdown of next logical support of 5850 (which also happens to be 50% retracement level of the upmove) will open the doors for levels of 5600 to 5700. Around 5600 – 5650  there  is strong technical support and this also happens to be the target of bearish head and shoulder pattern breakdown. But one must understand that Nifty is not in hurry to reach to these levels and Nifty will dodge time and again to reach this level.

Enjoy the profits.

Dated :- 01.06.2013  (Saturday)           NIFTY  :   5985.95

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty has done exactly what was mentioned in my last blog. It was clearly mentioned in last blog that below 6128  –ve  bias shall continue, but shorting was advised only on breakdown of 6050. It moved completely in the shorter range of 6050-6130 described in last blog and even touched the higher range on expiry day (when it closed at 6124 but could not break the range on upside).

It was also advised that between 6050 - 6130 is no trade zone. On Friday it broke 6050 (lower part of range) and could not rebound, weakness took its toll on the market and it closed at 5985.95 (down 138 points).

Now as Nifty has broken 6050, short positions should have been taken with the stop loss of 6090 on half of the position and 6130 for rest half with the aim that Nifty may go to 5920 levels and try to break it to go down further. Important point to note here is that 5915-5920 is very crucial point. Below this point Nifty will give multiple breakdowns such as :

1)     Bollinger Band Breakdown on daily charts

2)     End of Higher tops and higher lows cycle on daily charts

3)     Bearish Head & Shoulder breakdown on daily charts

4)     Breakdown of bearish engulfing pattern on weekly chart

5)     Other structural breakdowns

This 5915-5920 becomes very crucial level and Nifty sometimes show volatility around important levels before giving breakdown. Thus, around these levels sit and decide your risk and reward appetite to swallow that volatility. For traders, pyramid shape profit booking is also advised as it is always prudent.

After such a fall of 138 points in one day, volatile swings may come but these are part of market.

I have repeatedly being cautioning not to take long position and the result is in front of you.