Dated :- 27.09. 2015

                                                                    NIFTY SPOT : 7868.50

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty moved up exactly as was mentioned by me in my previous blog dated Sept 20, 2015.

It was clearly mentioned that Nifty chart is showing that Nifty wants to be in a range between 8090 to 7730.

And, till, 7660 is protected on the down side do not panic, and Nifty will be in consolidation mode, means that buying at lower level of the range can be done without fear.

And the same happened, Nifty while moving in the range, first came down from the upper levels of the range. And while coming down to lower end of the range Nifty made a low of 7723. Our lower end was at 7730, exactly at the same level. Nifty rebounded more than 160 points from 7730. In spite of the bad news floating around the World the magical level for the week of 7730 held.

Readers of the blog would be enjoying the movement of Nifty.

Now What :-

Now also view on Nifty is virtually the same. Charts of Nifty and many parameters of different studies are indicating that Nifty wants to spend some more time in the range.

However the important thing is that, now, interestingly levels of the range are changing and the range is also broadening. Now lower end is at 7560 and the upper end is at 8060 to 8090.

Sounds strange, that range has also become big of around 500 points and the significance of 7730 and 7660 is also ignored now.

The answer to that is :- 7660 and 7730 as was mentioned in my earlier blog have done their work. This is the important area of analysis one must accept and understand. Identify and change the levels which are expected to work at different point. Now the significance of 7730 and 7660 will not be that much as per me. Now the significance has changed to 7560 and then 7510. On the up side now 8060 is becoming more and more important level. On the upside levels like 7930 & 7980 are much less important than 8060.

We have to accept that big range. Since charts are saying it.

Now let me explain some reasons showing shifting of levels :-

Bollinger band on daily charts has squeezed and straightened and is showing lower end at 7600 and upper end at 8059.

Momentum indicators and oscillators are also not ready for any immediate big up move.

Momentum indicators and oscillators are also indicating that one can not rule out a retest of 7620 and when these kind of retesting actually happens the levels sometimes can even stretch further also, that is why I gave the lower end of the range at 7560. They are also indicating that if Nifty runs away from here immediately nonstop from here then Nifty may not sustain at higher levels because Momentum indicators and oscillators are not ready right now for that kind of move up.

This is also one of the reasons that 7660 and 7730 are given less importance now. In nut shell the crux of the analysis is that expect some more range bound movement in Nifty.  Although RBI Policy on Sept 29, and Good news from World can change the position, but till now I am writing what charts are showing as on today.

Just for Knowledge and information : -  Traders would be keenly watching inverted (Bullish) Head & Shoulder pattern which Nifty is making on the daily chart having its breakout above 7980. But Since, range levels are also not too far. Give more importance to 8060 than 7980.

While spending time in the range if at all Nifty comes back to test around 7620 levels again. And then it makes some pattern and starts moving up then that move up can be given more weightage.

Trade accordingly.