Dated :- 01. 03. 2015

                                                                     NIFTY SPOT : 8901.85

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty after a volatile move on Budget day closed at days high at 8901.85.

Thanks to index management lead by Banking stocks. Prime facie the late up move in Nifty on Budget day may be due to short covering seems to be an index management and crafted lead by banking stocks. But if that up move gets a follow up then it will mean that it was real and one should strictly refrain any shorting thoughts in Nifty in that case.

Now What :-

Now this is high time for Nifty to take a move on one side. Which side that move will be decided in coming days.

Why it is so?  Because, if we look at charts and charts only than close above 8900 is positive for Nifty and now chartically till Nifty is above 8840 on immediate basis one can expect higher levels.

If Nifty stays at or above 8900 for a day or two than possibility of short covering will be high and those who have shorted the Nifty will be caught on wrong foot.

Full & actual impact of Budget will come in days to come especially on Monday or Tuesday. Which will decide the movement on Nifty as FII’s had very less participation on Budget day.

But Nifty at all time high and too much divergence between different sectors & stocks and within the banking stock divergence between private and PSU banks will not last for long period of time.

Also do not forget that Nifty is still making –ve divergence on Daily and weekly charts. Which is indicating that the time is not too far when some reasonable correction may setin. Which also indicates that any rally from here may prove to be last move and after that good and meaning full and deep correction can be expected.

For very short term CRUX of the analysis is that if Nifty goes and stays above 8950 look for long opportunities and if Nifty stays below 8840 look for short selling.

Why even after saying that Nifty has closed above 8900 and chartically it looks good for higher levels, both up and down levels are mentioned today?

Because I want to wait for confirmation of the late upmove in Nifty on Budget day which helped Nifty to close above 8900 as their is a good possibility of it was managed and false one. Thus only the further confirmation of the upmove further will confirm and justify going long in Nifty.

Trade accordingly.