Dated :- 13.12. 2015

                                                                      NIFTY SPOT : 7610.45

Hi,

Readers,

In my previous blog dated Dec 04, 2015 I wrote that I will be out of town and will be updating the blog after coming back.

Now I am back to work.

Nifty is coming down continuously after it broke 7820. Now today it is standing at 7610.45.

Now What :-

As mentioned in my earlier blogs Nifty is in a down trend and it is that downtrend which is bringing Nifty down.

Now with the close at 7610, Nifty has made one more bearish head & shoulder pattern on weekly charts. The targets of which I do not wish to write because they are scary. And I do not want to scare the readers. We will keep on writing and riding the moves as they happen.

Now more downside levels of Nifty are opening up and the technical setup is very bearish.

Now even the die heart bull would have been scared.

Let me write what I can see on the charts :-

My analysis of the charts are saying that the setup is very bearish and more and more downside levels are opening up.

But when I ask the question to my charts that when to expect those lower levels the answer I receive from my indicators is interesting. They keep mum and say we will be oversold very soon and may also lack power on immediate basis.

My special strategies are indicating that the charts are not ready for the run through down move. They want some more time. The kind of set up Nifty is having at present, chartically, I would like to see Nifty spending some more time in some range or rebound.

To me, 7540 is not important level which almost everybody in the market is looking for, but for me, as per my analysis 7454 is crucial important level. I give more weight age to 7454 then 7540.

If Nifty stays below 7454 then the immediate and run through down side will open. But the indicators are saying that they will become deeply oversold till or even before 7454 comes. And they would force Nifty to either go into a range again or to pose a sharp rebound. I know, that, News flows are very bad and no result in ongoing parliament session on GST and Yellen’s decision of Fed rate hike can ruin the markets. Still I am writing purely what charts are saying as of now.

However, if Nifty defies the charts and stays below 7454 then further downside on immediate basis will open. This situation is not likely to occur. It is only major bad news event which can do that.

On an immediate basis I would not be ultra bearish. I would rather like to either stay out or would like to play the rebound around or even before 7454 comes.

Although stock specific still there are many selling opportunities available.

Do keep in mind also that the news events in front of us in next few days may be very bad and they can create panic in markets also. Because news events do not care for charts. Be nimble footed and ready to exit if news events create havoc in markets.

Dated :- 04.12. 2015

                                                                      NIFTY SPOT : 7781.90

Hi,

Readers,

As mentioned in my earlier blogs, after booking part profits twice in the long positions, Readers of the blog were trailing the balance part of the long position in Nifty with the trailing stop loss of 7820.

So that even if Nifty goes below 7820 then even that part of long position would be closed in profit.

Today i.e. Dec. 04, 2015 Nifty went below 7820 thus readers of the blog would have booked full profit and stepped aside.

Now What :-

Now step aside and let the Nifty settle down.

I am out of town till Wednesday and will be updating the next blog as per the Nifty’s movement only after coming back.

Till then enjoy.

Dated :- 29.11. 2015

                                                                        NIFTY SPOT : 7942.70

Hi,

Readers,

Kudos again.

Nifty is moving up as mentioned by me in my previous blog dated Nov. 22, 2015.

As mentioned by me in my earlier blogs Nifty was expected to rake support at 7708. It took support at 7714 and now it is standing at 7942. More than 200 points from the lows.

Book more profits here at 7942 and trail the balance position with the trailing stop loss of 7820 closing basis.

Enjoy the profit.

Dated :- 22.11. 2015

                                                                     NIFTY SPOT : 7856.55

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty moved exactly as was mentioned in my previous blog dated Nov. 15, 2015.

Wherein it was mentioned that Nifty should take support at 7708.

Look the same happened, Nifty took support exactly at 7714 (i.e. exactly at 7708)  and rebounded strongly.

Even the bad news from Europe could not break the important support level and Nifty again rebounded strongly form the support of 7708.

This is the power of technical analysis.

Now What :-

Book part profit on Monday i.e. Nov 23, 2015 and hold the balance Long position with the stop loss of virtually of cost at 7720.

As and when Nifty gives close above 7912 trail the stop loss to 7783 closing basis.

Enjoy the profit.

Dated :- 15.11. 2015

                                                                          NIFTY SPOT : 7762.25

Hi,

Readers,

Welcome back after Diwali.

Continuing its downtrend, Nifty is coming down continuously from 8330 and now today it is standing at 7762.

Readers of the blog would be sitting happy as we had identified the top in advance.

Now What :-

Now Nifty has done 76.1% retracement of the rise it made from 7539 to 8336.

Hourly charts are showing that +ve divergences are in the making.

Stochastic is also in oversold zones.

Daily RSI is also at 30.

Frankly charts are not giving any clear indications for any immediate move. But one thing is certain that Nifty is coming in the area where it has started saying that rebound in Nifty is round the corner.

Now whether it will come immediately or it will come from lower levels will be identified by smaller time frame charts at that time only during the market times. Thus I am not writing it today that from where rebound will come because charts are not giving exact levels as on today. However I am writing below, what I expect to happen.

Let me explain my understanding of charts in detail :-

Fresh selling at current levels in Nifty should be avoided because risk reward ratio is not favorable.

Nifty has already made a low of 7730 on Friday.

Nifty support levels are 7680 to 7708 and then 7503 is major support.

I expect Nifty to take support at around this 7680 to 7708 levels and give one rebound. But as I had mentioned earlier also that charts are not giving full clarity as on today it will be decided during the market times. But, I consider that to be most probable scenario.

On the other hand if by chance Nifty goes run through to 7503 around level without rebound (which is very less probability) then do not panic but as per my analysis rather go and buy Nifty.

Let us talk about resistance levels they are at 8036 and 8210.

I have given you the plain charts reading and analysis.

Trade accordingly.

  

Dated :- 08.11. 2015

                                                                  NIFTY SPOT : 7954.30

Hi,

Readers,

First of all    HAPPY DIWALI    to all.

Nifty moved exactly as was mentioned in my previous blog.

Nifty initially took support around 8000 levels and rebounded to 8116 levels and then again fell to 7926 and closed at 7954.

Important thing is that in spite of news all around. Nifty gave respect to the support level of 7880 to 7950 and took support there multiple times.

Now What :-

Now Bihar election result is out.

In these kind of instances Markets normally defies technicals. Also as per our policy we do not keep positions before any major news event.

Now I would like to wait and see market reaction which is expected to be –ve. for once may be upto any level.

Let the Market settle down first and then we will look at the technical picture again.

Wait and watch and Enjoy “DIWALI”.

Dated :- 01.11. 2015                                 NIFTY SPOT : 8065.80

Hi,

Readers,

Kudos again.

Nifty moved exactly as was mentioned in my previous blog.

Readers of the blog were clearly informed when Nifty was at 8295 that Monday Oct. 26, 2015 will be the right time to book full profits and step aside. Also it was mentioned that Nifty is expected to open higher on Monday and readers of the blog had the opportunity to book full profits in all long positions when Nifty was at highest around 8330 levels.

After that readers can see that Nifty is falling nonstop daily from Monday to Friday. Nifty has fallen almost 300 points from the high and made a low of 8044 on Friday (Oct 30, 2015).

Readers of the blog would have enjoyed the fall in Nifty.

It is all GOD’s grace.

Now What :-

Now Nifty is standing at a very interesting stage.

The trend line of the move which started from 7558 is at 7950 and the channel support is coming at around 8000 levels.

Bollinger band support on daily charts comes at 8009.

50 DMA on Daily charts is standing at 8015.

Interestingly when Nifty was above 8300 it was above all the moving averages except Simple 200 DMA. Now today when Nifty is at 8065 it is below all the moving averages except simple 50 DMA.

The cluster of support areas mentioned above are not so strong support areas on stand alone basis. But if we look at chart with other indicators and combine them, then, 7880 to 7950 comes out to be a good support area. where Nifty is expected to take a pause and may rebound. Technically Nifty is expected to rebound from those levels. Thus one should book full profits in Nifty short positions accordingly.

On the up side 8240 remains as resistance for Nifty.

Broadly we can say that Nifty is in an overall range of 7880 to 8240.

The above analysis is based on pure technical basis.

Just to inform the readers that too much bad news are coming. For example the News from Moody’s and S&P, US Fed indication of raising interest rates in December policy and below expectation results from many markets leaders etc.

These kind of news events sometimes affect the market, because it jitters the confidence of traders to make positions.

Just keep an eye on these events also. But we prefer to trade technically keeping the events in mind only.