Dated :- 31.05. 2017                                 NIFTY SPOT : 9621.25

                                                                                                         

Hi readers,

Nifty moved exactly as was mentioned in my previous blog dated May 28, 2017. Buy on dips helped making money.

I want to write my overall analysis on Nifty as on today.

My analysis says that time has come to book all profits from all long positions where ever it may be and bring money home.

I am making a very big statement.

When almost all the analysts and investors and traders are bullish on market and looking for very high targets and are ultra Bullish.

I do not want to be a party Spoiler.

My analysis is saying that Market is in the TOP making mode and hence the Top is not far away.

As per my analysis this is not the time to play long or to look for long trades for positional view. Rather this is the time to book all profit from all long positions and bring money home.

"When you identify that water has started coming in the boat then do not wait for that boat to sink First and then look to exit and be the last to exit from the boat". Rather  wiseness  is, that, be the first to be out of the boat so that you move out swiftly and safely.

Same applies to the Market also.

The day is not far away when Nifty/Market will make its top and start coming down which will be very pain full.

When most of the traders and analysts will feel that Nifty is coming down big damage would have already happened.

This time also people will not believe it and will ignore my analysis but will accept it later as usual.

I am writing what my analysis is.

Writing such a big thing in public domain is not easy, it requires guts, boldness and confidence. Analysts normally avoid to write such things or try to say it politically or say it with dual meaning.

As always I am writing it crystal clear.

Although Smart people or Smart money may manage Nifty to go further up by few percentage points. But as the saying is "No body can always predict pin point ". Few 100 points in Nifty which is a small % from here should be left away. As that upward movement may or may not be there.

For Example :- When a person of Critical illness is on Dialysis and Doctors have said that Science can not do anything and patient will ultimately die, Please take the patient home and take utmost care of him.

No Doctor can say how much more time that person can survive Or how many more breaths he will have.

When even Science can no do this than in Stock Markets it is only anlaysis.

Rest the time will tell.

May GOD bless all of us.

Trade Accordingly.

 Note - ALL THE LEVELS ARE OF NIFTY SPOT ALWAYS.

Dated :- 28.05. 2017                                 NIFTY SPOT : 9595.10

                                                                                                         

Hi readers,

Nifty moved up sharply in the previous week and closed at 9595 after making a high of 9605. This is the power of short covering.

Nifty did gave the closing below our level of 9390 activating shorts selling in Nifty and made a low of 9341 and closed at 9360. But then the short covering proved that breakdown to be a false breakdown and hitting the stop loss at 9456 and after that went up to close at 9595.

Professional traders were able to reverse the position and were able to make money by buying Nifty above 9460.

Now What :-

This back to back strong green candles has given strength to Nifty and further upside towards 9670 and then 9730 and 9770 is not ruled out over the period of time.

Now till 9341 is intact the texture is buy on dips.

On the lower side this 9341 will be an important trend decider level.

Over all I expect Nifty to trade in the range of 9480 to 9730 in the coming week.

Also on the Nifty Mid Cap 50 index currently at 4491, although the breakdown with gap was strong and is still intact and gave good results till now, by forcing it to come down 10% or more than 400 points. But on weekly and daily charts this last two days has raised flags. Now till the time the Nifty Mid Cap 50 index is closing above 4398 more upside is possible. And it may try to test 4650 to 4700 also. Means if it is above 4398 we will interpret it that it is not week and thus more upside is possible.

Trade Accordingly

 Note - ALL THE LEVELS ARE OF NIFTY SPOT ALWAYS.

Dated :- 21.05. 2017                                 NIFTY SPOT : 9427.90

                                                                                                         

Hi readers,

Again the technical's helped us not to be on the wrong side of the trade, they mostly keep the technical analyst on right side of the trade.

It was mentioned in my previous blog that if Nifty goes and stay above 9437 that do not even think of selling as 9437 for us was important level.

Nifty opened the week at 9433 and moved ahead and made a high of 9532 and then came back to close at 9427 thus the readers would have been sitting safe in the volatile week.

We decided to step aside above 9437 and our decision also proved right because the way Nifty and the stocks have fallen from 9532 anybody who have been long would have looked for shelter and some scary days.

Now What :-

First of all let us talk about Nifty Mid cap index (Chart Attached) which has given a gap down breakdown which indicates, that, till the time this gap is not filled on the up side, no point buying from the positional point of view.

The overall view on the mid cap index is that Till the time this gap is not filled in this mid cap index I will not be a positional buyer in Mid Cap stocks. Location wise It is a significant gap Do not take this gap lightly.

Now let us talk about Nifty :-

Nifty after taking resistance at 9532 fell and made a low of 9390 and closed the week at 9427 making a shooting star or Gravestone Doji pattern on weekly charts.

But many of my indicators wanted the close below 9398 to give confirmation of the bearishness in Nifty. This 9398 has now shifted to 9390 for coming week.

Nifty has still managed to close above this level.

Thus the view for the coming week is that now below 9390 closing basis expect more weakness in Nifty and it will then be inclined to move further down to 9258 around levels.

And more importantly till the time Nifty closes above 9390 it may surprise by short covering. Thus for the coming week till Nifty is above 9390 do not try to sell it because till now even by the two trading sessions weakness back to back Nifty has not broken any key important levels.

 In that case Nifty will move in a range between 9360 to 9550.

Also Nifty has not closed below the upper line of the channel who's breakout it has given on daily charts.

Till now co-incidentally 9390 is the level when it will enter within the channel again. (Chart Attached) Thus till the time it does not enter in the channel its breakout is on which may force rebound.

If 9390 is not broken on closing basis then expect choppy moves in Nifty in the coming week because in that case Nifty midcap index will play its part and it will give resistance to Nifty on the upside.

Rather in that case playing the range in Nifty will be a good strategy. ie. selling near the upper level of the range and buying at lower end of the range for small profits will be a good strategy.

Trade Accordingly.

 Note - ALL THE LEVELS ARE OF NIFTY SPOT ALWAYS.

Chart of Mid cap Index :-

Nifty Channel Chart :-

Dated :- 14.05. 2017                                 NIFTY SPOT : 9408.35

                                                                                                         

Hi readers,

The decision to book whatever small profit was there in the short positions proved to be right again.

As I mentioned that the short covering will kill the short sellers same happened.

Nifty bounced from 9297 and made a high of 9450 and closed the week at 9408.

Now What:-

Now I expect Nifty to trade in the range between 9200 to 9480 around.

Actually I expect it to touch 9258 around levels and then go in a range again.

Actually Nifty has made a special pattern which may force Nifty to trade with -ve or bearish bias in the next one or two trading sessions and after that it is expected to trade in the range.

Thus trade accordingly in the coming week.

Where till the time it is closing below 9437 I would be trading with -ve bias for next two days after that I would like to book profits and close the position and step aside.

Below 9437 is the key point which can be watched on intraday basis also.

If it goes above 9437 then I will step aside and not trade and wait for the trade to come.

Trade Accordingly.

Dated :- 07.05. 2017                                 NIFTY SPOT : 9285.30

                                                                                                         

Hi readers,

Nifty gave the breakdown as was mentioned in my previous blog dated May 05, 2017,  but the follow through was not that much as it should have been. It came down but the speed of coming down was less.

Although all the ingredients were in place for Nifty to come down, but it, came down only 100 points from the open. It should have been much more than that.

Now What -

We want everything to be right to carry the trade further otherwise short covering will kill the short Sellers.

Nifty should have closed at least below 9234.

Now Since Nifty fell but fell less than what it should have been, I believe that one should book whatever small profits are there or at cost and step aside.

I wanted to write to carry the short positions for next two days with the stop loss of 9416 as Nifty has given breakdown on hourly charts and on daily charts indicators have started favoring Short Selling. Confirmation of all those would have easily come if Nifty would have closed below 9234.

After giving breakdown on hourly charts it is standing there only.

If we wait for Nifty to close below 9234 in next two days and allowing it one or two day grace period then there is a risk attached to that. 

And I think that at this point the risk of 116 points in Nifty is not worth taking.

Thus it is better to step aside and book whatever small profits are there or at cost etc. and wait  for next move to come.

Let Nifty give us another move as and when it happens which will be updated accordingly.

Trade accordingly.

Though I would like to mention here that Nifty has made 6 red candles on daily charts and made hanging man pattern and gave the breakdown of that also and below  9234 it will be inclined to come down.

 Note - ALL THE LEVELS ARE OF NIFTY SPOT ALWAYS.

Dated :- 05.05. 2017                                 NIFTY SPOT : 9323.05

 Hi readers,

Some readers calling me and sending me msgs. that Nifty has just kissed 9315 and immediately came back.

So shall they consider that 9318 is breached.

My answer is no.

Nifty has to stay below 9318 for say 5 to 10 minutes.

Just kissing 9315 and immediately coming back is no breach.

Now readers should not be short till now.

For more certainty now change the level of going short to below 9298 Nifty spot.

For clarification of any doubts or dummy moves.

Thus as of now readers would not be having any position.

The blog is updated at 10.13 a.m. when Nifty is at 9323

Trade accordingly.

 Note - ALL THE LEVELS ARE OF NIFTY SPOT ALWAYS.

Dated :- 05.05. 2017                                 NIFTY SPOT : 9359.05

 Hi readers,

Nifty has moved up but not to my satisfaction.

We played this upward breakout and wanted Nifty to move up gradually.

Nifty is moving up slowly and it is stuck at around 9360.

This is not the movement which we relish.

Thus We prefer to book small profits in the long positions at the open today and close the position and step aside.

Now Second thing is to rather go short below 9318 with the initial stop loss of 9416 and we will trail the stop loss later on.

There is high probability that intermediate top may be getting formed.

We will trail the stop loss further to 9387 if Nifty comes down.

The blog is updated at 9.03 a.m. before the market opens.

Trade accordingly.

 Note - ALL THE LEVELS ARE OF NIFTY SPOT ALWAYS.

Dated :- 01.05. 2017                                 NIFTY SPOT : 9304.05

 Hi readers,

Nifty has made a full body Green Candle in the previous week.

We were expecting full body candle in the Nifty in the previous week and it was advised to hold the balance short positions with the trailing stop loss of 9222.

Readers were also cautioned that the full body candle can be green also which can force Nifty to cross 9222 and thus force the readers to exit the short positions.

We held the part short positions because we had already done the trade management and the trailing stop loss was nothing to the readers as they had already booked the part profit, thus the complete trade was closed with no profit no loss or in negligible profit.

Now What -

Now Nifty has moved above 9222 and has given bullish breakout.

See, in the technical analysis we have to understand and accept what the charts are saying.

Breaking above 9222 and then above 9245 was an important event and should not be taken lightly.

Breakout is a breakout and has to be traded by going long.

This is an important juncture in Nifty movement.

Bullish breakout is sustaining in Nifty.

Then what should be the strategy in Nifty.

Simple go long.

Charts of Nifty is saying that one should not go Short in Nifty till it is above 9180 and at least till it is above 9220.

Even if this breakout happens to be false breakout, the chances of which are less till now. Even then what is at stake it is only about 100 points in Nifty.

Thus the strategy is to trade long in Nifty with this bullish breakout with the stop loss of 9180 and If Nifty goes and stay below 9180 then below 9180 there is a selling opportunity with the stop loss of 9270 closing basis.

That is till Nifty is above 9180 play long and go long for higher targets of 9380, 9434 and 9492. And when Nifty goes and stays below 9180 go Short in Nifty with the stop loss of 9270 for lower targets.

The pattern Nifty is in, it is more likely, that, the pattern will keep Nifty at these elevated levels and keep moving higher.

This type of pattern can only be violated by strong gap down move in Nifty on any given day. Thus readers should also keep in mind and be on their toes for any sudden gap down move.

OR

Second possibility of very fast down move in Nifty of around or more than 70 to 80 points in the first hour of any day.

Which will be an advance indication to close the long position and rather will be giving possibility to go short even before  waiting till 9180 which will be decided as per the move as and when it happens.

Trade accordingly.

 Note - ALL THE LEVELS ARE OF NIFTY SPOT ALWAYS.