Dated :- 25.09. 2016                                 NIFTY SPOT : 8831.55

Nifty moved exactly as was mentioned  by me in my previous blog.

Nifty crossed 8808 on the first day of the week itself i.e. on Monday itself. It gave full value to the level of 8808 by closing exactly at 8808 on Monday. And then it was all over the place. It was mentioned that once 8808 is crossed it will be volatile and try to trade less as it will be very volatile and same happened.

Now What ;-

Now Nifty is standing at 8831 and it has been contracting for last 8-9 days and moving in small range. Expect Nifty to move around 100 to 150 points in once side in the coming week on either side.

Indicators are also indicating that that now Nifty wants to move on one side. Do not expect this expiry week to be dull one, rather expect it will be action packed week.

Important level to watch is 8781 for the coming week. Consider this level to be pivot point or a line in sand. This level will act as trend decider level also for the coming week. Whenever you find Nifty above 8781 look for buying possibilities and below this look for selling possibilities always again and again on both sides.

On the upside the important levels are 8908, 8968 and 9016.

On the down side the important levels are 8720,8689,8607.

Trade accordingly.

Note :- All Levels are Nifty spot levels always.

A small clarification in the previous when talking of Nifty patterns is was mistyped as Falling wedge pattern on weekly charts it was actually rising wedge pattern. A typing error. It should be read as rising wedge pattern.

 Dated :- 18.09. 2016                                 NIFTY SPOT : 8779.85

Nifty rebounded sharply and readers would be happy that they were able to exit at proper and appropriate time when I updated the blog on Sept 15, 2016 during the market that if Nifty does not closes below 8690 then book profits in short positions and close the short positions and step aside. Next day Nifty rebounded and made a high of 8847. This is how the technical analysis helps being on the right side of the trade.

See, breakdown or breakouts is important events and they should and must get the follow through. If follow through is missing then by nature it is expected to take a reverse move. Because it means that it is not sustaining and thus the reverse move is expected.

Now What ;-

Nifty is making some bearish patterns which I also mentioned in my earlier blogs.

To name a few patterns which are commonly understood are -

          1. Shooting star pattern on weekly charts with gap.

          2. Island reversal pattern on daily and weekly charts.

          3. Falling wedge pattern on weekly charts.

Nifty fell sharply on Friday which came from the Island reversal pattern as Nifty was not able to break that pattern. Remember Island reversal pattern which is bearish pattern is still on. Till Nifty is closing below 8859 the bearish Island reversal pattern will remain on. It is a strong reversal pattern.

We have important market moving event of FOMC meeting on 20-21 Sept where Yellen will decide on intt. rates in U.S.

Now how to approach Nifty in coming week Taking into consideration the above bearish patterns -

The level of 8808 on the upside now becomes very important for Nifty. Till the time Nifty is below that it is expected to be bearish. Means till Nifty is below 8808 Nifty is expected to be bearish and expect lower levels. Once Nifty crosses 8808 it will become in a range and wait for FOMC to give further cues. Range is expected to be 8635 to 8918.

Trading Strategy would be to play on sell side that is bearish side till Nifty is below 8808 and once Nifty crosses 8808 expect it to be in a trading range and volatile one. That will be the time to trade less and stay on side lines because the volatility is expected to be high.

Trade accordingly.

Note :- All Levels are Nifty spot levels always.

 Dated :- 15.09. 2016                                 NIFTY SPOT : 8712

Nifty is not breaking 8700 comprehensively.

Now the time has come to be on your toes and be care full with your short positions.

If Nifty does not close below 8690  today then book full profits and close the short positions and step aside.

No point carrying short positions when Nifty is taking support at 8700 time and again and to eat our profits.

Enjoy the profits.

I am writing this blog during the market so that readers could take care of their profits and positions.

Note :- All Levels are Nifty spot levels always.

 Dated :- 11.09. 2016                                 NIFTY SPOT : 8866.70

Nifty achieved the targets of 8903 but could not sustain above that.

As it was mentioned in my previous blog that I would watch Nifty's movement, that how Nifty behaves and acts at the level of 8903.

And did not wanted to participate in the upward movement of Nifty towards 8903 because my indicators were behaving abnormally as if it is a false  movement and thus I decided to watch Nifty's movement.

The decision proved to be the right one. Nifty could not sustain at higher levels. It fell from 8968 to close the week at 8866.

Making bearish patterns and giving breakdown on smaller charts.

Because if some one carry long position in such scenario's then he/she remains more worried in closing or squaring his/her long positions and thus most of the times they could not trade on reverse side i.e sell side at right time. Because they wait for the stop loss of the long position to hit first and then they start thinking for sell trade which makes them late.

Let me share a very small analysis with you.

Nifty in dollar terms has not moved up more as our Nifty index has moved.

Nifty in dollar terms has not even crossed the corresponding level of 8654 in our Nifty Index.

Nifty in dollar terms has taken the resistance of 66.67 percent retracement point. Which is at 3556 and it has closed at 3547.

Also making same bearish patterns.

Now What -

Simple go short.

The opportunity was at previous trading session when Nifty gave breakdown on charts. Any person not short in Nifty can still short sell Nifty with the initial stop loss of 8968 Nifty spot intraday basis. And trail it down to 8903 closing basis as and when Nifty breaks and stays below 8790.

Watch Nifty touching lower levels in coming days.

Enjoy trading.

Note :- All Levels are Nifty spot levels always.

 Dated :- 05.09. 2016                                 NIFTY SPOT : 8809.65

Nifty ultimately refused to come down and proved the breakdown to be the false one and rebounded sharply thus hitting the stop loss which is very rare thing in the history of the blog probably first time the initial stop loss is hit.

Well this is market and it is always right.

That is why there is a saying that Price is GOD.

Now What -

Now Nifty has shown the breakout on the upside.

The next targets are 8872 and 8903.

I would be stock specific in coming week and would like to watch Nifty's movement, that, how Nifty behaves from here. Whether it goes to 8903 or not. And if it goes there then whether it goes there without breaking 8760 again etc. etc.

Positioning of indicators in those scenarios etc.etc.

I will be watching Nifty in current week and will look for opportunities in stock where there are ample trade available.

  

Note :- All Levels are Nifty spot levels always.