Dated :- 26. 07. 2015

                                                                    NIFTY SPOT : 8521.55

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty moved exactly as was mentioned by me in my previous blog. As expected it faced resistance around 8670 and that too multiple times and fell down to close at 8521.55.

Overall view in Nifty is still the same as I have been regularly mentioning in my previous blogs. i.e. Nifty is sell on rise till it does not cross 8730 comprehensively.

What Next :-

Readers would remember that I had attached the Chart in my previous blog in which I showed two Head & Shoulder patterns and specifically mentioned that Bearish Head & Shoulder pattern is still on. And it was clearly mentioned that it is expected that Nifty will face massive multiple resistance going forward. The same happened.

Even still Nifty is in small trading range and even now also it is better to stay out of Nifty and play stock specific.

Because Nifty is facing too much resistance at 8670 to 8730 levels as expected. But simultaneously it is not giving clear signs to go short also. Because it is only below 8480 closing basis, that, Nifty will start becoming bearish. Thus volatility will be the name of the game.

Important resistance areas for Nifty is at 8670, 8730.

On the downside below 8480 Nifty will be bearish and below 8280 there is a breakdown in Nifty.

Also the coming week is an expiry week, thus expect volatility.

Trade Accordingly.

Dated :- 19. 07. 2015

                                                                    NIFTY SPOT : 8609.85

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty moved exactly as was mentioned by me in my previous blog.

It was clearly mentioned that for the week (July 13 to July 19):-

My special strategies are indicating that 8402 to 8423 is a trend decider for coming week. And it was also mentioned that Nifty will move 150-200 points or more on one side in next 5 – 10 trading sessions.

Same happened.

Nifty moved around 300 points on up side. And as soon as it crossed 8423 it never looked back and moved up run through.

Now What :-

Overall view is still the same as was mentioned in my earlier blogs.

Now for the mean time it may be the prudent strategy to step aside from the positions in Nifty and watch what Nifty is doing in next week.

Nifty is very near to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level which is at 8670 of its fall from 9119 to 7940.

Also I would like to mention here is that Nifty has already done 127.8% Fibonacci retracement of its fall from 8489.55(May 22, 2015) to 7940 low made on June 12, 2015. And 138.2% Fibonacci retracement of the same is at 8698.

 Now the further 150 points to 8750 are very critical as I have been mentioning continuously in my earlier blogs.

If Nifty crosses and stays above 8750 comprehensively then only we will think that Nifty may well be reversing its trend on the upside again. It will be decided by the chart patterns at that time.

But Till Nifty is below 8728 (Weekly Closing Basis) the overall trend in Nifty is considered to be sell on rise.

Till now even the intermediate up move of Nifty on upside was clearly mentioned in the blog in advance.

But, for now, since, next 150 points are going to be very crucial, Nifty may face massive multiple resistance. It is better to step aside and wait and watch.

OR in case Nifty decides to break the levels with the bang then even a sharp rally can not be ruled out. But for now chances of such a scenario of run through move are very less.

Trade Accordingly.

Now Let me show Nifty chart which is very interesting. Chart Attached :-

Chart Showing Both head & Shoulder Patterns

It is showing that Nifty has already given Breakdown of one Bearish Head & Shoulder pattern and Now it has made one Bullish Head & Shoulder pattern. Interesting fact is that BOTH are valid till now and Nifty is standing just at the neck line of both in Daily Candle Chart.

For Clarity :- 

“S” is Shoulder

“H” is Head.

Dated :- 12. 07. 2015

                                                                 NIFTY SPOT : 8360.55

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty came down as expected and as was mentioned in my previous blog.

It was clearly mentioned that Nifty is sell on rise only.

Nifty fell sharply and surprising the traders on the street but the readers of the blog knew it in advance that fall is more or less inevitable and it is coming. Same happened. Nifty fell around 250 points from the high within the week.

Now What :-

The overall view is same as mentioned in detail in my previous blog.

Nifty has made bearish gap on daily chart below 8485. Till that gap is holding sudden selling in Nifty will keep on coming and one can expect lower levels.

Nifty is also trading below short term trend line which is at 8475.

And 8463 is multiple resistance point coming from different parameters.

Just look, it is interesting that various parameters are indicating virtually same level.

Meaning there by that 8485 shall be considered as good resistance. But one should also keep in mind that whenever these kind of multiple levels are taken out good short covering can also take place.

For short term trading one should read the below points carefully :-

My special strategies are indicating that 8402 to 8423 is very important level. One can consider this to be the level which may act as trend decider for coming week.

My special Bollinger Band is indicating that below 8297 lower levels are coming.

Thus, if we interpret the above for short term trading. One can consider that Nifty may well be in the range between 8290 to 8430.

Special point to mention here is that if Nifty breaks the range on the up side then one should keep in watch that Nifty also crosses and close above 8485 (the gap resistance). Otherwise the gap will give resistance. In that case trend decider levels will help to decide which side of the trade one should be.

Within next 5 – 10 trading sessions there is high probability that Nifty may ultimately give 150-200 points or more move on one side from the current levels of 8360. The level mentioned above will help in trading the side of move.

The result season is also starting thus volatility will be the name of the game. Also. The Greece Drama is coming at its climax.

Trade accordingly.

I wanted to share some other technical facts namely :-

Ø 200 and 50 DMA’s.

Ø Saucer like pattern on hourly chart in the making in Nifty and Bank Nifty.

Ø Inverted H & S pattern in Nifty and Bank Nifty

But I thought that those further information’s may confuse the readers.

Another important thing is that weakness in Bank Nifty is must for lower levels because otherwise it can prove to be the Joker in the pack. It has made double hammers on monthly charts. Very important and rare pattern and one should keep an eye on it.

Dated :- 05. 07. 2015

                                                                   NIFTY SPOT : 8484.90

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty closed at the upper end of the major resistance band mentioned in my earlier blog. Whose upper range was 8490.

Now What :-

Nifty is pushing higher slowly and is in a small range for last 3 trading days.

But till now FII’s are not buying in cash market…?

And still Nifty is being kept at higher levels.

Thanks to the large cap shares having good weightage in Nifty. Though I hate to use the word Index Management but could not find any other suitable word for it.

Many people have started thinking that now this market is not going to stop and will go up up and away. Frankly speaking prima facie(apparently) some the charts are deliberately crafted to show that Nifty is going up up and away. But, if we go deep in the charts and as per my analysis even till now nothing has changed. Traders may like it or not. But still Nifty has to do a lot more for actual trend to reverse and to say that Nifty has reversed its trend.

Now the question is that what is the level after which I will be change my view on Nifty. Let me share that levels and my view with readers.

It is only if Nifty somehow manages to give weekly close above 8728. i.e. if Nifty somehow manages to close the week above 8728 I will start thinking that may be Nifty is reversing its trend and is no longer sell on rise. It is the manner of Nifty and charts at that point of time which will decide whether Nifty is actually changing its trend or not.

Above was my view on Nifty.

For now as too much news are coming around especially from Europe where Greece is going for Referendum today. Thus at least till the Greece episode is clear, It is better to see from the sidelines and wait for proper opportunity.