Dated :- 31. 05. 2015

                                                                  NIFTY SPOT : 8433.65

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty moved within the range in the volatile expiry week.

Readers would have booked complete profits from their trailing part long position and closed their long position when Nifty went below 8332.

Readers would have noticed that even after so much of volatility Nifty gave high respect to the level of 8332 which was mentioned in the previous blog. It continuously closed above 8332 but it was only the expiry day when Nifty closed at 8319 just 13 points below 8332 and from there it went up to close at 8433.

Now What :-

Nifty charts is showing strength at present.

This coming week is news heavy and we have RBI credit policy on June 02, where the expectations are very very high and Greece debt payment date on June 05, 2015.

Nifty’s move in next week will be derived by news.

But I would like to reiterate that Nifty’s overall trend is down till Nifty is below 8700. It is only intermediate up move of Nifty.

Thus trade with care.

On upside the targets for Nifty are 8520, 8627, 8714.

On the down side this intermediate up move is expected to vanish if Nifty goes below 8200.

To update the readers on technical front Nifty is standing just on the neckline of the big Head & Shoulder pattern on weekly chart.

Trade Accordingly.

Dated :- 24. 05. 2015

                                                                   NIFTY SPOT : 8458.95

Hi,

Readers,

Kudos again.

Nifty exactly moved as was mentioned in my previous blog.

More and more profits.

Nifty has almost hit the first target of 8500. Nifty made a high of 8490 on Friday i.e. May 22, 2015.

Readers should also note that Nifty has made a full body candle as was mentioned in my previous blog that Nifty will make a full body candle. Readers can see the full body candle in the chart attached below.

Chart Showing Full Body Candle

This is the power of technical analysis.

Now What :-

Book part profits and keep the strict trailing stop loss for the balance long position at 8332.

Now if the current move sustains then the next initial targets are 8570 – 8600. Where readers should book more profits and trail the balance position with the next trailing stop loss of 8406. However that 8600 to 8700 area is very stiff resistance area and is also tussle zone but since the position is in handsome profit it is recommended to carry a small part of position with the above mentioned trailing stop loss.

Low risk traders of lighthearted traders can book full profits in between anywhere as per their appetite.

Enjoy the profits.

Dated :- 17. 05. 2015                                 NIFTY SPOT : 8262.35

Hi,

Readers,

Previous blog on Nifty was very precise and Nifty moved as was mentioned in my previous blog.

It was mentioned that Nifty is in a range between 8080 to 8350. And avoid shorting till Nifty is above 8080.

Look the same happened Nifty moved within the range only and it touched 8333 on the up side an 8089 on the lower side and remain very very volatile. But see even in extreme volatility Nifty respected the range.

Volatility was on its extreme in last week but readers of the blog would have enjoyed that also as it was mentioned that try to buy on dips and take small profit and run away. Readers would have made profits in that volatility. Also like mentioned in my previous blog many Mid Cap stocks moved up in last week.

Now What :-

Now in the coming week it is the time for Nifty to move out of the range and give a good tradable move.

Looking at the chart it looks that there is good probability that coming week can witness good move on one side. In technical terms as we say full body candle either RED or Green.

Now the range of 8080-8350 is about to give way to tradable move. Rather even above 8300 Nifty is giving inverted (Bullish) Head & Shoulder pattern breakout and above 8350 there are multiple breakouts on smaller time frame charts. In case of breakout on up side first probable targets are 8500-8550 and in case of breakdown first probable targets are 7900-7850 on lower side.

Interesting co-relation I would like to tell to readers, is that, for the last 10-11 trading days the pattern or small structure Nifty is making identically resembles the pattern it made when Nifty was at 5100 in end of August 2013. From where Nifty gave sharp reversal towards upside. I am not at all saying that it will happen again. I am only providing information that pattern Nifty is making is resembles to that pattern.

But Since, Nifty is spending too much time within the range and traders and waiting on the side lines to latch on to the move on range breakout. This increases the possibility of false breakout for once and sharp reversal thereupon on other side.

Readers should be cautious about that also and be ready to play the reverse move also.

Point is to be ready to play the move.

Trade accordingly.

Dated :- 10. 05. 2015

                                                                      NIFTY SPOT : 8191.50

Hi,

Readers,

Previous blog on Nifty was very precise and Nifty moved as was mentioned in my previous blog.

Nifty first of all after crossing above 8210 went up to 8355 and after taking resistance at higher levels fell sharply as was mentioned in my last paragraph of the previous blog that fall in Nifty can only be possible if it is severe one.

Let me quote last paragraph of the previous blog:-

“Looking at the chart structure further immediate fall in Nifty can only be possible if Nifty breaks 8100 with big red candle i.e. run through with severe fall. Also with the second condition that after breaking 8100, Nifty without even crossing 8200 goes below 8000 and stays below that”.

Now What :-

Nifty is now in a range between 8080 to 8350.

Actually let me be more frank and say that charts are indicating that one should refrain (avoid) shorting Nifty at least for next few trading sessions because any fresh shorting will be more justified when Nifty spend some time in a range and then again breaks 8080 on the downside.

Why I am saying that wait before selling Nifty because Nifty Midcap index and midcap stocks charts are indicating that they want to either rebound or spend some time. Means that they do not want to come down in a hurry.

Also some large cap stocks are also indicating that they are oversold and that is the reason that Nifty is now acting in a volatile manner.

Most of the components of CNXNifty are now trading below 200 DMA. This is also the time of consolidation. However problem area for markets now is Bank Nifty which has given a breakdown of big bearish head & shoulder pattern.

Much better strategy for trading is to be stock specific and avoid Nifty. Because till Nifty is above 8080 the more probable trade will be to look for buying in Nifty whenever it comes down to take small profit quickly.

Strategy is to let the Nifty consolidate and be stock specific.

Trade accordingly.

Dated :- 03. 05. 2015                                 NIFTY SPOT : 8181.50

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty is coming down and down as expected.

Now Nifty is hovering around 8200 in spite of the fact that it has given bearish breakdown of big Head & Shoulder pattern. Because Nifty is taking support on its trend line and on smaller time frames charts Nifty is oversold.

Other technical facts are Nifty has also given bearish breakdown of double top pattern in monthly charts which is very important.

Now let me explain it in detail :-

Nifty has taken support on its trend line at 8150. This is the trend line of the original up move which was started from 5100 in August 2013.

This is a major trend line and as per my analysis and as per the current setup of Nifty, there is high probability that Nifty may ultimately respect that trend line for once. Irrespective of the fact that Nifty has given big bearish Head & Shoulder pattern breakdown. That was also one of the reasons that in my previous blog I mentioned that book full profits for once in all short positions created around 8800 levels together with mentioning that nothing moves in straight line.

Now, if Nifty stays above 8210 comprehensively then expect rebound in Nifty in which case the next resistance is at 8420 – 8450. Nifty is also making +ve divergence on hourly charts which also supports and ready to force rebound. Nifty is also on the lower end of the Bollinger band on daily charts which also indicates support.

In case if Nifty stays above 8210 comprehensively and confirms the rebound then 8080 will be important level till the time it is protected on closing basis rebound is on and break below that will reduce the chances of rebound. Any rebound which may come shall only be a technical rebound. Overall  chart structure is still sell on rise till the time 8700 is not taken out.

Looking at the chart structure further immediate fall in Nifty can only be possible if Nifty breaks 8100 with big red candle i.e. run through with severe fall. Also with the second condition that after breaking 8100, Nifty without even crossing 8200 goes below 8000 and stays below that.

Trade accordingly.