Dated :- 30.03.2014 (SUNDAY)

                                                                 NIFTY  Spot :   6695.9

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty is standing at new life time high of 6695.9.

It was mentioned in my previous blog for high risk traders to trail the rally further with the stop loss of 6515.

Now What :-

Now it is the time to book complete profits here & step aside.

One should not be carried away with the rally.

There are some technical indicators which are showing that 6718 to 6800 may prove to be a big wall for Nifty to climb.

See, this rally is a momentum driven rally, in these type of rallies one can - not pin point & say where it will end.

But it seems that for the time being Nifty is heading for pause.

In any case as per my analysis Nifty did not spent appropriate time around  6400 which it should have spent there, to take off for a good rally.

This means that even if Nifty is standing at 6700 today, It has to come back to at least 6400 around levels or lower again.

Considering the bullish tone in general & contrary to that tone, I am talking of 6400 or may be lower today. Although I may be among a very few or may be lonely in today’s environment to say this. But, I always believe & write only on technical analysis & indications on the charts.

In general there is an ultra bullish opinion and there are talks of even 8000 level for Nifty. But for me it is the time to be cautious.

It is separate issue that whether Nifty crosses 6800-6850 or not before coming back to 6400 or lower levels.

Although it is less likely that 6800-6850 will be breached without coming back to 6400.

Trade accordingly.

NOTE :-

This blog is repeated again just to correct the date. As it was mistyped as March 28, 2014 instead of March 30, 2014 in the previous blog. Today on the day of updation of blog it is March 30, 2014.

Inconvenience  is regretted.

Dated :- 28.03.2014 (SUNDAY)

                                                    NIFTY  Spot :   6695.9

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty is standing at new life time high of 6695.9.

It was mentioned in my previous blog for high risk traders to trail the rally further with the stop loss of 6515.

Now What :-

Now it is the time to book complete profits here & step aside.

One should not be carried away with the rally.

There are some technical indicators which are showing that 6718 to 6800 may prove to be a big wall for Nifty to climb.

See, this rally is a momentum driven rally, in these type of rallies one can - not pin point & say where it will end.

But it seems that for the time being Nifty is heading for pause.

In any case as per my analysis Nifty did not spent appropriate time around  6400 which it should have spent there, to take off for a good rally.

This means that even if Nifty is standing at 6700 today, It has to come back to at least 6400 around levels or lower again.

Considering the bullish tone in general & contrary to that tone, I am talking of 6400 or may be lower today. Although I may be among a very few or may be lonely in today’s environment to say this. But, I always believe & write only on technical analysis & indications on the charts.

In general there is an ultra bullish opinion and there are talks of even 8000 level for Nifty. But for me it is the time to be cautious.

It is separate issue that whether Nifty crosses 6800-6850 or not before coming back to 6400 or lower levels.

Although it is less likely that 6800-6850 will be breached without coming back to 6400.

Trade accordingly.

Dated :- 24.03.2014 (MONDAY)

                                                           NIFTY  Spot :   6583.5

Hi, 

Readers,

Nifty did exactly the same as was mentioned in my previous blog.

It was clearly mentioned to go long above 6535 with a small stop loss of 25 points.

Nifty went up sharply and made a high of 6591.5 and closed at 6583. Those who have gone long after reading the blog would have made good profit.

Profit of around 60 points today itself. That too on a stop loss of 25 points.

Now what :-

Nifty has given handsome profit today itself.

As per prudent trading practice, profit should not be allowed to vanish.

Since it is expiry week.

It is recommended to book complete profit and step aside.

Although momentum is still strong. But booking profits never hurts.

Expiry weeks sometimes do crazy things.

One should always look for smooth ride.

Lot of opportunities will come in due course.

Till then enjoy the profits.

However high risk traders can book part profits here and can trail part position with the trailing stop loss of 6515.

Dated :- 23.03.2014 (SUNDAY)

                                                           NIFTY  Spot :   6494.9

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty did exactly the same as was mentioned in my previous blog.

Nifty moved in small range.

It was recommended to positional traders to stay out of Nifty.

Also it was mentioned that for professional traders small trading opportunities will be there and keep booking small profits. That strategy yielded profits.

Now What :-

Nifty is moving in small range.

Now it is the time for Nifty to take a move.

The interesting thing now in Nifty’s chart is that, it is poised in such a way, that it can take move on either side.

Why so, Why Nifty can move upward also?

Answer is that, Nifty’s chart is now also making good Flag pattern on daily chart.

If, Nifty gives breakout of this flag pattern than the trend  which I have been saying that it is up, will resume and Nifty can show higher levels.

Nifty chart attached showing flag pattern.

On the other hand if Nifty does not give breakout of this Flag pattern than it will be inclined to correct.

Now, for Nifty the time has come to take move in coming days.

And the small movement period is going to be over any time.

Levels to watch to trade Nifty :-

On the up side 6535 is very important level and breakout in Nifty will come above 6570.

Aggressive traders can keep on buying N

ifty above 6535 and wait for breakout to happen on upside.

But do keep very tight stop loss of say 25 to 30 points only.

Because in these kind of scenarios false breakouts and breakdowns are market maker’s sweet dish.

On down side 6450 is very important level. If Nifty goes below 6450 and stays below that further downside can be seen.

Keep in mind that stop loss here also should be very tight of 25 to 30 points.

Trade accordingly.

Dated :- 18.03.2014 (Tuesday)

                                                         NIFTY  Spot :   6516.65

Hi,

Readers,

I was out of town due to some sudden & urgent work and came back today only.

Thus could not update the blog in between.

Last week it was mentioned that Nifty will be inclined to correct and that correction will decide the fate of Nifty. Nifty corrected 100 points and made a low of 6432.

Now What :-

Nifty’s currently is not giving reasonable correction.

And is stuck in a range between 6430 to 6560.

Nifty has also started making small broadening pattern on daily charts. Which indicates that no large move on upside will come in Nifty without good correction.

These factors together with some other technical reasons indicate that next correction whenever it will come can be a good one.

Now the question shall be why not to short Nifty here?

Answer to that is Nifty’s overall trend and movement is still up till now. These are only advance indications which we are getting through our analysis.

Than what to do?

Do not be over enthusiastic in buying Nifty. Be cautious.

Lot of opportunities will come in days ahead.

Stay out of Nifty and be stock specific.

Nifty will be volatile in coming days and will be vulnerable to sharp corrections. Be cautious.

However if Nifty manages to close above 6570 than 6530 shall become pivot point. Meaning thereby that till Nifty is above 6530 do not short Nifty. And correction shall come in Nifty only if it goes and stays below 6530.

Professional traders shall get small trading opportunities in both sides. Take those small moves and book small profits intraday.

This Blog is updated again to correct date. As in the earlier blog date was wrongly typed as 09.03.2014. But it is 18.03.2014 today.

Dated :- 09.03.2014 (TUESDAY)

                                                          NIFTY  Spot :   6516.65

Hi,

Readers,

I was out of town due to some sudden & urgent work and came back today only.

Thus could not update the blog in between.

Last week it was mentioned that Nifty will be inclined to correct and that correction will decide the fate of Nifty. Nifty corrected 100 points and made a low of 6432.

Now What :-

Nifty’s currently is not giving reasonable correction.

And is stuck in a range between 6430 to 6560.

Nifty has also started making small broadening pattern on daily charts. Which indicates that no large move on upside will come in Nifty without good correction.

These factors together with some other technical reasons indicate that next correction whenever it will come can be a good one.

Now the question shall be why not to short Nifty here?

Answer to that is Nifty’s overall trend and movement is still up till now. These are only advance indications which we are getting through our analysis.

Than what to do?

Do not be over enthusiastic in buying Nifty. Be cautious.

Lot of opportunities will come in days ahead.

Stay out of Nifty and be stock specific.

Nifty will be volatile in coming days and will be vulnerable to sharp corrections. Be cautious.

However if Nifty manages to close above 6570 than 6530 shall become pivot point. Meaning thereby that till Nifty is above 6530 do not short Nifty. And correction shall come in Nifty only if it goes and stays below 6530.

Professional traders shall get small trading opportunities in both sides. Take those small moves and book small profits intraday. 

Dated :- 09.03.2014 (SUNDAY)

                                                     NIFTY  Spot :   6526.65

Hi,

Readers,

Last week it was mentioned that current move of Nifty was standing at such level that either downtrend will resume or Nifty will break the downtrend and move higher. Thus it was mentioned to wait for Nifty to take its course & till then step aside.

Nifty after breaking 6360 and then 6415 has now ultimately broke the trend and closed at 6526.65. After breaking 6415 Nifty moved up sharply showing short covering of reversal of trend.

Nifty is at all time high and all time high’s should be respected.

However further it is advised that this upward movement of Nifty should not be taken for granted and correction in Nifty in coming days will determine the strength of this up move.

Now What :-

Nifty is at all time high. Nifty moved more than 300 points in 4 days.

There is no fun in jumping at this point to buy Nifty when it has just reversed the trend and is deeply overbought.

A small caution I would like to raise here is that one should look at option data of Nifty. Looking at that it appears that bulls are becoming complacent. Because there is massive put writing. The march series has still time to expire & Nifty is in deep overbought zone. Thus wait for correction in Nifty.

Dated :- 02.03.2014 (SUNDAY)

                                                       NIFTY  Spot :   6276.95

Hi,

Readers,

Nifty has filled the gap fully between 6188 to 6263 as was mentioned by me in my earlier blogs.

It was mentioned in my previous blog to book full profits in all the long positions and step aside. Because booking profits is always good.

Now What :-

Nifty is overbought at this point of time.

This up move has not yet reversed the trend which is still down.

Till the time trend is not reversed Nifty will be vulnerable to sudden and sharp corrections. Which can come anytime.

Nifty has major resistance at 6330 to 6360.

Do not make any fresh long position in Nifty till the time down trend is intact. Even look for small sell opportunities in Nifty during intraday. But these should be strictly of small stop losses of say not more than 20 points.

Till then stay out and wait for next opportunity.