Dated :- 28.07.2013 (SUNDAY)

                                                                              NIFTY  :   5886

Hi,

Readers,

As was advised in the last blog that Nifty movement is very suspicious and it was advised to exit all longs positions. It was also cautioned that next movement of Nifty will be of downside when the Nifty was at 6029.

Nifty justified the analysis and came down sharply.

Now today when the Nifty is at 5886 what next:

Before giving you analysis let me explain the current scenario of Nifty:-

Nifty close below 5850 is a sell and a fresh downside will open.

Nifty close above 5985 some more upside levels are possible.

5915 level is also becoming important level. Nifty above 5915 one should not be a seller, but longs are advised only above 5985. Nifty below 5915 one should not be a buyer, but shorting is advised only below 5850.

Now analysis:

After sharp fall from high of 6093 Nifty is showing interesting movement wherein 5850 is a very important breakdown level and 5985 is a level above which more upside is possible.

Nifty charts and multiple indicators are showing that 5850-55 is very important & strong support. No fresh downside will open unless Nifty gives close below 5850 comprehensively. This support has significant strength to force Nifty to rebound.

But the point here is that till what level this rebound will go. Should one make long position in this rebound, the answer is NO. Long position in Nifty is justified only above 5985.

What if, Nifty do not hold this support and closes below 5850 comprehensively, in that case go short & more downside levels will open.

If 5850 support did not hold than technical structure of Nifty will be negatively dented and bears will start smelling blood.

Within this range of 5850 to 5985 trade with caution keeping 5915 in mind and book quick profits.

This 5850 to 5985 is a log-jam range. Trade cautiously.

Dated :- 19.07.2013 (Friday)

                                                                     NIFTY  :   6029

Hi,

Readers,

The Nifty has done exactly as was mentioned in my previous blog on July 14, 2013 when the Nifty was at 6009.

Here are the quotes of my last blog “Nifty upside movement is suspicious but still, Since, breakout is there, traders should have been long and enjoying the gains. Never trade against the trend even if movement is cautioning you to be suspicious. What you can do then is, to keep your stop losses tight and control on the quantity. Trailing Stop loss for those who are riding the move should be around 5900 levels. Keep booking profits regularly while riding this trend.”

The targets for Nifty mentioned in the blog were 6040 and 6136. Nifty gave volatile swings on both sides but was not able to go near the stop loss level given in last blog of 5900 level, because charts were giving strength inspite of highly adverse news from RBI. Nifty has made a high of 6067 today and achieved the first target of 6040 for two consecutive days but on both days it closed below 6040. Today’s movement of Nifty is again more suspicious and cautioning. Thus it is advised to book profits here and step aside. Wise man always protects his profits first.

Enjoy the profits. Keep reading the blog for next movement of Nifty which may probably be of down side.

Dated :- 14.07.2013 (Sunday)

                                                                                   NIFTY :   6009

Hi,

Readers,

The Nifty has done exactly as was mentioned in my previous blog on July 07, 2013 when the Nifty was at 5867. It gave moves on both sides within the range as was mentioned in my earlier blogs. 

Nifty broke the range upside and went up quickly. Nifty movement is very volatile and it has made around 10 gaps in last 22 trading days. Targets of this breakout are 6040 and 6136. But the movement of Nifty in this breakout is suspicious and cautioning, care should be taken here. Because Nifty has made a rare hanging man pattern on Friday with gap which is a bearish pattern.

Note, hanging man pattern is common but hanging man pattern with gap is rare which was made on Friday. Important point here is that movement after breakout should be strong and should not make hanging man pattern.

Now how to trade, Since, breakout is there, traders should have been long and enjoying the gains. Never trade against the trend even if movement is cautioning you to be suspicious. What you can do then is, to keep your stop losses tight and control on the quantity. Trailing Stop loss for those who are riding the move should be around 5900 levels. Keep booking profits regularly while riding this trend.

Nifty’s volatile movement these days is due to news flowing from within the country and from rest of the world. Keep watch on national and international news.

Dated :- 07.07.2013

                                                                      NIFTY  :   5867.90

Hi,

Readers,

The Nifty has done exactly as was mentioned in my previous blog on July 02, 2013 when the Nifty was at 5857. It was clearly mentioned that Nifty will give both up and down tradable moves between the range 5750 to 5900-5950 in coming days. Nifty did exactly the same. It went down 100 points and touched 5758 i.e. the lower end of the range and rebounded from there to 5900 levels to touch the first upper end of the range.

As mentioned earlier also Nifty has stiff resistance between 5900 to 5950-70 levels and the strong support is at 5700-5750 levels. Nifty is also making bullish head & shoulder pattern(inverted head & shoulder) the breakout of which is above 5930 levels and this pattern has an upside target of around 300 points after the breakout. This bullish head & shoulder breakout level is increasing daily by a few points, as of today it is at 5930.  But since the range has an upper end at 5950-5970 then logically I consider that the breakout of inverted head & shoulder shall also be assumed to be at 5970.

Coincidently, Upper line of Bollinger band on daily charts is at 5960 i.e. at the upper end of the range of Nifty mentioned above. Which also indicates that till the range does not break upper end, up move in Nifty is difficult.

Breakout of this range on lower side will dent the strength of Nifty on daily charts, weekly charts and will have full downside force of hourly charts. And breakout of this range comprehensively on upside will fuel more strength in weekly, daily and hourly charts.

Remember in these type of circumstances sometimes smart operators give false breakouts/breakdowns and then almost immediately they reverse. Be careful for that also.

Enjoy the profits and trade with caution.

Dated :- 02.07.2013 (Tuesday) NIFTY : 5857.55

Dated :- 02.07.2013  (Tuesday)             NIFTY  :   5857.55

Hi,

Readers,

The Nifty has behaved exactly as was mentioned in my previous blog on June 27, 2013 when the Nifty was at 5682. It was clearly mentioned that Nifty has given an upside breakout above 5666 of very short term reversal pattern and this pattern has the potential of giving further steam to this rebound and can take Nifty to higher levels. Nifty moved higher and made a high of 5900.

I hope readers would have enjoyed the profits from the above move.

Nifty have stiff resistance between 5900 to 5950-70 levels. This level will be strong resistance area.

Nifty is making very interesting chart pattern. On one hand Nifty is in an overall downtrend and on the other hand it has made a reversal pattern, and after breakout of reversal pattern above 5666 Nifty has given a strong gap up in Nifty chart between 5700 to 5750. Till the time this gap holds, Nifty chart says that it still wants to battle hard with the downtrend and is showing strength till now and threatens to go in consolidation.

Up and down side tradable moves will be there in Nifty in coming days, traders are advised to book profits from time to time till the time Nifty is between 5750 to 5950.